In their study on Islamic radicalism in Central Asia, Ivan Safranchuk, a Professor at the MGIMO University in Moscow, and Rustam Makhmudov examine the historical evolution, patterns, and future trajectory of radical Islamist movements in the region. The authors argue that the development of Islam in Central Asia throughout the 20th century was shaped primarily by internal regional dynamics, closely intertwined with local traditions and identity formation. They highlight that while the Soviet period suppressed Islamic practices, the political liberalisation of the late 20th century, particularly during perestroika, led to the revival of political Islam, fostering the emergence of various movements and organisations across the region. However, the authors note that while these groups initially played a significant role in shaping the religious and political discourse, they were progressively marginalised by state authorities, limiting their domestic influence.
The authors propose a critical distinction between two types of radical Islamic organisations operating in Central Asia. The first category consists of groups focused on the internal Islamic revival, emphasising religious purification and non-violent political engagement. The second type comprises transnational organisations that seek to use Central Asia as a recruitment and operational base for broader geopolitical ambitions. Safranchuk and Makhmudov underscore that both categories of organisations face mounting pressure from regional governments, with states employing legal, political, and security measures to suppress their activities. Additionally, they highlight that Jihadist movements, which previously sought to expand their influence in the region, have suffered major military defeats, weakening their operational capacity and ideological appeal.
Despite these setbacks for radical Islamist organisations, the authors conclude that Islamic radicalism in Central Asia is unlikely to disappear entirely. They argue that the ongoing religious renaissance in the region — fuelled by socialisation and enculturation processes — provides a fertile environment for radical ideologies to persist. While state repression has curbed the most overt expressions of political Islam, the broader trend of increasing religious consciousness means that radical narratives may continue to find some traction, particularly among disaffected segments of society. Consequently, the study suggests that governments must remain vigilant, balancing their counter-radicalisation efforts with policies that address socio-economic grievances and promote moderate Islamic engagement.
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