Policy Briefs

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Policy Briefs

04 April, 2025

The leading energy publication Uzbekistan Oil and Gas highlighted the activities of the Centre for Energy Diplomacy and Geopolitics of IAIS at UWED

The first issue of the scientific and technical journal Uzbekistan Oil and Gas 2025 features an article on the Centre for Energy Diplomacy and Geopolitics of the Institute of Advanced International Studies (IASI) at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy (UWED). This publication notes the growing importance of energy diplomacy in global politics and highlights the Centre’s contribution to the scientific understanding of current trends in this area.   The article focuses on key areas of the Centre’s work, including analysis of the energy strategies of the world’s leading powers, the prospects for transnational cooperation in the energy sector, and the impact of global energy processes on the economies and policies of Central Asian countries. The material pays special attention to energy security, sustainable development and Uzbekistan’s role in international energy initiatives.   It is noted that IAIS Centre for Energy Diplomacy and Geopolitics is an important scientific and analytical platform contributing to the development of strategic recommendations for policy makers and energy experts. The research highlights the geo-economic aspects of energy co-operation, including infrastructure development, energy transit issues and geopolitical challenges in this area.   Publication in Uzbekistan’s leading core journal is a sign of recognition of the importance of scientific research in the field of energy diplomacy. The Uzbekistan Oil and Gas journal, established by Uzbekneftegaz JSC, is the only specialised publication covering the country’s oil and gas industry, and its authority in the professional environment underlines the significance of the published material.   In addition to expanding the scientific discourse on global energy geopolitics, the journal contributes to the formation of an expert dialogue between research structures, industrial enterprises and the government sector.

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Policy Briefs

04 April, 2025

EU-CA 2025 Summit in Samarkand: A New Milestone of Co-Operation

The policy brief, co-authored by Mushtariy Usmonova and Fazliddin Djamalov, provides a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming EU-Central Asia Summit. The authors highlight the summit as a crucial event in strengthening ties between the European Union and the Central Asian states, building on past engagements such as the 2023 meeting in Cholpon-Ata. The piece underscores the significance of the EU’s Global Gateway strategy in fostering economic and infrastructural cooperation while positioning the EU as a key partner for the region amid global challenges.   The historical context of EU-Central Asia relations is examined, tracing back to the Silk Road era and evolving through post-Soviet engagements such as the TACIS programme and the EU Strategy for Central Asia. The article outlines the strategic importance of trade and investment, citing that EU-Central Asia trade is expected to surpass €54 billion by the end of 2024, with the EU being a major investor in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and technology. The authors highlight key recent agreements, including a €3 million deal on critical raw materials and a €20 million investment grant to Tajikistan’s power grid modernisation, reflecting Europe’s commitment to economic sustainability in the region.   A major focus is placed on infrastructure and connectivity, particularly the EU’s support for the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), where €10 billion has been pledged to enhance regional transit links. The article also discusses the geopolitical complexities of EU engagement, including the challenges posed by sanctions on Russia and strategic competition with China. Additionally, the role of cultural and educational exchanges, such as the Erasmus+ programme and EU-funded language centres, is emphasised as a means to foster long-term cooperation.   The publication underscores the summit as a pivotal moment for advancing EU-Central Asia relations, both in economic and socio-cultural dimensions. The agreements and initiatives expected from the meeting are portrayed as key steps toward ensuring regional stability and deeper integration with the EU. By addressing economic development, infrastructure, and cultural cooperation, the article argues that the summit will elevate the partnership to a new level of enhanced and targeted collaboration.   Read on uwed.uz   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

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Policy Briefs

01 April, 2025

Uzbekistan Confidently Forms a New Transport Architecture of the Turkic States

Nargiza Umarova examines Uzbekistan’s proactive efforts in shaping a new transport architecture among the Turkic states. She highlights how the country’s strategic location and policy initiatives have enabled it to integrate into the evolving Eurasian transport corridors, particularly in light of the disruptions caused by sanctions on Russia. Uzbekistan has taken advantage of the shift towards the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), positioning itself as a key transit hub between China, Europe, and South Asia. By aligning with the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and launching cooperative projects such as CASCA+, Uzbekistan aims to enhance connectivity and expand its export and trade networks.   Ms. Umarova underscores the economic benefits of these transport initiatives, noting that Uzbekistan’s international cargo transport reached approximately 60 million tons in 2024, with the European market playing an increasingly significant role. The country benefits from preferential trade agreements such as GSP+, allowing duty-free access for over 6,000 types of goods to the EU. The CASCA+ corridor, connecting Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Türkiye, is presented as a strategic alternative to the Middle Corridor, offering more efficient transit routes and lower logistical costs. The author also highlights Uzbekistan’s growing economic ties with Türkiye, including trade and investment projects worth billions of dollars, facilitated by measures such as customs tariff reductions and digitalization of transport services.   Additionally, she discusses Uzbekistan’s diversification strategy beyond the Turkic states, particularly its engagement with Iran. She describes the launch of the Türkiye-Iran-Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan railway in 2022 as a key step in enhancing Central Asia’s connectivity to the Middle East and Europe. This initiative, along with the proposed Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Türkiye corridor, demonstrates Tashkent’s commitment to expanding trade routes and securing alternative transit pathways. The expert notes that these efforts reduce reliance on traditional corridors through Kazakhstan and Russia, making Uzbekistan a crucial player in the regional and global supply chain.   In conclusion, Ms. Umarova argues that Uzbekistan’s transport strategy has a multiplier effect, benefiting not only the country itself but also strengthening the OTS and enhancing regional integration. By prioritizing infrastructure development and fostering cooperation among Turkic states and external partners, Tashkent is establishing itself as a key driver of connectivity in Eurasia. She suggests that Uzbekistan’s active participation in international transport projects contributes to the OTS’s growing influence, while also reinforcing the country’s role in global trade.   Read on ANKASAM’s The International Asia Today   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

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Policy Briefs

27 March, 2025

Uzbekistan’s Evolving Northern Afghanistan Strategy

The authors, Hamza Boltaev and Dr. Islomkhon Gafarov, argue that Uzbekistan’s evolving strategy towards Northern Afghanistan is driven by pragmatic economic and geopolitical considerations. They state that Tashkent has moved beyond a traditional security-first approach to one that prioritizes economic engagement and infrastructural development. This shift is exemplified by Uzbekistan’s commitment to increasing bilateral trade with Afghanistan, with a stated goal of reaching a turnover of $3 billion, alongside key projects such as the expansion of trade centers and the Trans-Afghan transport corridor.   They highlight the deep historical ties between Uzbekistan and Northern Afghanistan, particularly in provinces such as Balkh, Jowzjan, and Faryab, where significant Uzbek communities reside. They state that these connections, dating back to the Emirate of Bukhara, provide a strong foundation for Uzbekistan’s policy. They further argue that while the Qosh-Tepa Canal presents potential water-related tensions, Tashkent’s strategy focuses on fostering economic development in Northern Afghanistan as a means of ensuring stability. The authors suggest that Uzbekistan’s approach balances caution with engagement, aiming to position itself as a key economic partner while avoiding direct political entanglements.   The policy brief also underscores Uzbekistan’s use of soft power through educational initiatives, such as funding the construction of the “Khair al-Mudaris Imam Bukhari” madrasah in Mazar-i-Sharif. The authors contend that by supporting religious and intellectual development, Uzbekistan seeks to counter radical ideologies and solidify its influence among Afghanistan’s religious and political elites. However, they caution that challenges remain, including shifting ethnic dynamics in Northern Afghanistan, growing Chinese economic interests, and potential energy market realignments that could diminish Uzbekistan’s role.   Ultimately, Mr. Boltaev and Dr. Gafarov conclude that Uzbekistan’s policy reflects an effort to integrate Afghanistan more closely into the broader Central Asian region. They state that Tashkent’s focus on economic cooperation, regional stability, and infrastructural development demonstrates a long-term commitment to fostering bilateral relations beyond immediate security concerns. While challenges persist, the authors suggest that Uzbekistan’s nuanced approach positions it as a critical player in shaping Afghanistan’s future, particularly in its northern provinces.   Read on The Diplomat   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

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Policy Briefs

27 March, 2025

Russia’s growing influence in Afghanistan: What does it mean for Central Asia?

Dr. Islomkhon Gafarov, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies, and Junior Research Fellow Bobur Mingyasharov state that Russia’s growing influence in Afghanistan is a strategic shift shaped by both geopolitical necessity and economic interests. Following the U.S. withdrawal, Moscow has sought to expand its engagement with the Taliban government, leveraging Afghanistan’s transit potential and market of 41 million people. The authors argue that Russia’s pragmatic approach — maintaining diplomatic presence in Kabul and considering the removal of the Taliban from its terrorist list — demonstrates a long-term commitment to strengthening ties. This shift, they note, aligns with Russia’s broader strategy of consolidating influence in Eurasia amid its ongoing confrontation with the West.   The authors further state that Russia’s engagement with Afghanistan encompasses three primary areas: trade, resource extraction, and security cooperation. They highlight that trade turnover between the two countries has exceeded $1 billion, with projections to reach $10 billion by 2030. Russia’s interest in Afghanistan’s lithium and rare earth minerals, they note, positions it in direct competition with China and India for resource access. Additionally, the authors emphasize Russia’s humanitarian aid efforts as part of its “soft power” strategy to improve relations with the Afghan authorities and overcome lingering historical grievances from the Soviet-Afghan war.   They also highlight that Russia’s strategy is shaped by competition with China, particularly in the economic sphere. While Beijing has firmly established itself as a key investor in Afghanistan through the Belt and Road Initiative, Russia seeks to secure its own economic foothold, particularly by supporting large-scale infrastructure projects such as the Trans-Afghan Railway. This project, they argue, would enhance Russia’s access to Indian and Pakistani markets while reinforcing Central Asia’s role as a transit corridor. However, they caution that the evolving geopolitical landscape in Afghanistan — where Russia, China, India, and Pakistan all vie for influence — could create tensions that may spill over into Central Asia.   Furthermore, it is underlined that security concerns remain a central factor in Russia’s Afghanistan policy. They note that Moscow views the Taliban as a critical partner in countering ISIS-Khorasan, particularly following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in Moscow. While Russia has refrained from expanding its military presence in Central Asia, the authors argue that its diplomatic engagement with the Taliban could reshape regional security dynamics. Finally, they conclude that Russia’s growing involvement in Afghanistan presents both opportunities and challenges for Central Asia, particularly in the realms of economic cooperation, counterterrorism, and water resource management.   Read the policy brief on Kun.uz   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

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Policy Briefs

25 March, 2025

How does Uzbekistan Develop Transport Links with the South Caucasus?

As Nargiza Umarova explains, Uzbekistan is actively developing its transport connectivity with the South Caucasus, recognising the region’s key role in facilitating trade between Central Asia and Europe. Given the growing importance of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) amid shifting geopolitical dynamics, Tashkent has intensified its cooperation with Azerbaijan and Georgia. Since the war in Ukraine and the subsequent decline of Russia’s role in the Europe-China transit chain, Uzbekistan has sought to capitalise on new transport corridors, particularly through the CASCA+ multimodal route. This corridor, linking Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Anatolia, has already proven its effectiveness with the successful shipment of goods to Europe, reducing both transit time and costs.   The author highlights Uzbekistan’s commitment to enhancing maritime transport infrastructure, with significant investments in the Baku International Sea Trade Port and the Black Sea ports of Poti and Batumi. The country also supports the opening of the Zangezur Corridor, which could shorten the route from Azerbaijan to Türkiye, further strengthening East-West trade links. However, she notes that the success of these transport initiatives depends on overcoming administrative and legal barriers, including tariff unification and the digitalisation of transit processes. According to Ms. Umarova, Uzbekistan’s deepening cooperation with Azerbaijan, particularly in railway and port infrastructure, aligns with its broader ambition to increase transit capacity to 22 million tons annually by 2030.   Explore a detailed analysis on Caspian Policy Center   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.