In his article Rustam Makhmudov emphasises that the modern discourse on green transition requires a deeper and non-linear understanding. The author, relying on the definitions of the European Commission, notes that the green transition involves not just technological innovation, but also fundamental changes in the very model of economic and social development. However, as Makhmudov expertly notes, current approaches often remain in the captivity of linear logic – as if we are talking about a straightforward transition from one system to another, without taking into account hidden contradictions and structural limitations.   The article pays special attention to the phenomenon of “growthism” – the ideology of quantitative increase in production, which has its roots in the era of industrial revolutions. Makhmudov argues that even proponents of the circular economy – a key element of the green transition – often remain hostage to productivist attitudes. He critically analyses the circular model, pointing out its contradiction: in reality, maintaining endless technological innovation and mass consumption leads to the increasing extraction of new resources, such as lithium and rare earth metals, which calls into question the true sustainability of the stated goals.   The author details the relationship between the ideology of mass consumption, the mechanisms of creative destruction described by Joseph Schumpeter, and the logic of modern technological progress. Makhmudov emphasises that without constant stimulation of demand and accelerated obsolescence of goods, the dynamics of the capitalist economy is impossible, which means that the green transition will not escape these patterns. In this context, he is sceptical about the possibility of building a truly closed circular economy, as resource recycling has physical, thermodynamic and economic limits.   Finally, the expert notes that green technologies, despite reducing emissions at the operational stage, are accompanied by significant environmental costs at the extraction and production stages. Makhmudov provides convincing evidence of the high level of pollution in lithium and rare earth mining and the high carbon footprint of electric vehicle production. He concludes his analysis with the need for further fundamental research that can not only diagnose the weaknesses of the current green transition model, but also suggest more realistic ways to improve it.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

In their study on Islamic radicalism in Central Asia, Ivan Safranchuk, a Professor at the MGIMO University in Moscow, and Rustam Makhmudov examine the historical evolution, patterns, and future trajectory of radical Islamist movements in the region. The authors argue that the development of Islam in Central Asia throughout the 20th century was shaped primarily by internal regional dynamics, closely intertwined with local traditions and identity formation. They highlight that while the Soviet period suppressed Islamic practices, the political liberalisation of the late 20th century, particularly during perestroika, led to the revival of political Islam, fostering the emergence of various movements and organisations across the region. However, the authors note that while these groups initially played a significant role in shaping the religious and political discourse, they were progressively marginalised by state authorities, limiting their domestic influence.   The authors propose a critical distinction between two types of radical Islamic organisations operating in Central Asia. The first category consists of groups focused on the internal Islamic revival, emphasising religious purification and non-violent political engagement. The second type comprises transnational organisations that seek to use Central Asia as a recruitment and operational base for broader geopolitical ambitions. Safranchuk and Makhmudov underscore that both categories of organisations face mounting pressure from regional governments, with states employing legal, political, and security measures to suppress their activities. Additionally, they highlight that Jihadist movements, which previously sought to expand their influence in the region, have suffered major military defeats, weakening their operational capacity and ideological appeal.   Despite these setbacks for radical Islamist organisations, the authors conclude that Islamic radicalism in Central Asia is unlikely to disappear entirely. They argue that the ongoing religious renaissance in the region — fuelled by socialisation and enculturation processes — provides a fertile environment for radical ideologies to persist. While state repression has curbed the most overt expressions of political Islam, the broader trend of increasing religious consciousness means that radical narratives may continue to find some traction, particularly among disaffected segments of society. Consequently, the study suggests that governments must remain vigilant, balancing their counter-radicalisation efforts with policies that address socio-economic grievances and promote moderate Islamic engagement.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

In his article, Rustam Makhmudov analyses the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, looking at its causes, consequences and impact on international relations. He details the factors that contributed to the rapid fall of the Afghan government in 2021, including weak state institutions, corruption and ineffective policies of the US and its allies. The article highlights that despite years of efforts by the international community to stabilise Afghanistan, the Taliban have managed to regain power virtually unopposed.   The key point of the article is to examine the changes in the Taliban’s domestic and foreign policies since returning to power. The author notes that although the Taliban claim a desire to maintain international contacts and promise a more moderate course, their actual policies demonstrate a commitment to traditional radical ideas. In particular, there is an emphasis on restricting women’s rights, suppressing opposition and restoring strict religious norms.   An important aspect of the article is also an assessment of the world community’s reaction to the new regime in Afghanistan. The author points out the difference in the positions of different countries: some states seek cautious engagement with the Taliban, while others completely refuse to recognise their legitimacy. The article analyses how the Taliban’s policies affect regional security, including the threat of terrorism and the flow of refugees, as well as the impact of the situation on Central Asian countries.   Thus, the article presents an in-depth analysis of the contemporary Afghan reality, revealing the mechanisms of the Taliban’s rise to power, their internal politics and the international implications of this process. The author emphasises that further developments will largely depend on the ability of the international community to develop a unified approach to interacting with the Taliban regime.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

Jeon Hongpyo, a Visiting Research Fellow IAIS, explores the role of South Korea’s Sports Official Development Assistance (ODA) within the broader framework of the K-Silk Road Initiative. The author explains that following Korea’s transition from an aid recipient to a donor country, it has actively implemented multi-sectoral ODA programs, with sports emerging as a distinctive tool for fostering international cooperation. He highlights that sports ODA not only enhances health and well-being in developing countries but also serves as a diplomatic bridge, strengthening Korea’s relations with Central Asia amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.   He argues that sports ODA is a crucial mechanism within the K-Silk Road Initiative, a strategic policy designed to bolster ties between South Korea and Central Asia. Jeon notes that this initiative aligns with South Korea’s broader diplomatic objectives, particularly in light of global developments such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. The author underscores the importance of Korea’s engagement in Central Asia through joint training programs, coaching exchanges, and the development of local sports infrastructure. These efforts, he contends, not only improve athletic performance in recipient countries but also cultivate long-term diplomatic and economic partnerships.   The author provides concrete examples of Korea’s sports ODA in Central Asia, such as the training of Uzbek and Kazakh athletes at Korean facilities and the dispatch of Korean coaches to the region. He emphasises that these initiatives extend beyond mere athletic development, contributing to social integration, gender equality, and public health. Furthermore, the expert highlights the pressing health challenges in Uzbekistan, including high obesity rates and cardiovascular diseases, arguing that sports ODA can play a transformative role in addressing these issues.   In conclusion, Jeon Hongpyo advocates for the expansion of sports ODA through AI-driven innovations, leveraging Korea’s technological expertise to further enhance its impact. He suggests that AI could revolutionise training and performance analysis, strengthening Korea’s role as a leader in sports diplomacy. By integrating cutting-edge technologies into sports ODA, Jeon argues that South Korea can solidify its influence in Central Asia while simultaneously advancing the Sustainable Development Goals.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

In her recent article, published in Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Nargiza Umarova explores the geopolitical and economic implications of developing trans-Afghan transport routes. She argues that Central Asia is striving to reclaim its historical role as a vital land-based transportation hub connecting East and West, as well as North and South. The diversification of trade routes, particularly through Afghanistan, is a strategic priority for many Central Asian states, as it reduces reliance on traditional transit through Russia. However, she warns that the involvement of major powers — such as China, Russia, India, and Iran — introduces a complex web of competing interests that could complicate regional cooperation.   Ms. Umarova highlights how Afghanistan, under the Taliban government, has actively pursued infrastructure projects, including the Kabul Corridor (linking Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) and the Lapis Lazuli Corridor. She notes that multiple Central Asian countries are competing to shape the region’s transit landscape. Uzbekistan, for instance, champions the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway, while Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan back an alternative Trans-Afghan Corridor linking Turkmenistan to Pakistan. These rival projects not only reflect economic ambitions but also intersect with broader geopolitical strategies, as regional players seek to secure their positions in South Asian trade networks.   The article also discusses the strategic interests of external powers. Russia is keen on integrating Afghanistan into its North-South Transport Corridor to facilitate trade with South Asia, while Iran is pushing for alternative routes that bypass Central Asian competitors. Iran’s near-completed Khaf-Herat railway and its long-term vision for a transit corridor via Afghanistan and China pose a challenge to Central Asia’s transit ambitions. Similarly, the author outlines India’s efforts to connect with Central Asia via Iran’s Chabahar Port, bypassing Pakistan entirely. She further notes China’s cautious engagement in Afghan transit, particularly in relation to the Wakhan Corridor, which could create a direct trade link between Afghanistan and China but also diminish Central Asia’s relevance as a transit hub.   In conclusion, Nargiza Umarova underscores that while the expansion of Afghan transport corridors presents opportunities for Central Asia, it also introduces risks of intensified competition and geopolitical rivalry. To navigate these challenges, she advocates for a coordinated regional approach, where Central Asian states collaborate rather than compete to maximize mutual economic benefits. Without such coordination, she warns, external powers could exploit divisions within the region, potentially undermining Central Asia’s ability to leverage its strategic transit potential.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

In her new article, IAIS Senior Research Fellow Nargiza Umarova analyses the impact of Afghanistan’s transport infrastructure on regional integration and Central Asia’s economic prospects. The author emphasizes that since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the countries of the region have intensified efforts to diversify their trade routes, reducing their dependence on Russia. Particular attention is paid to the southern direction of transit, where the key partners of Central Asia are Iran and Afghanistan. The Taliban, while in power, have shown determination in developing transport corridors, including the construction of railways and infrastructure facilities such as the Kabul and Lazurite corridors.   An important part of the study is to look at the competition and interaction between different states in transport policy. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are promoting an alternative route via Torghundi-Gerat-Kandahar-Spin-Buldak, which could compete with the Trans-Afghan railway Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar actively supported by Uzbekistan. The author emphasizes that the development of these routes increases the transit capacity of the region, but could also lead to geopolitical rivalries and revision of strategic interests of major players such as Russia, Iran and China.   The article also touches on Moscow’s role in Afghan transit. In the face of Western sanctions, Russia has shown interest in expanding the North-South International Transport Corridor with access to Pakistan via Afghanistan. In this context, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan can play a key role by attracting significant cargo flows. At the same time, Iran and India are developing their own initiatives, such as the Chabahar port and railway routes, in an effort to provide alternative routes to Central Asia, which could weaken the position of the Uzbek Kabul corridor.   Nargiza Umarova concludes by noting that the dynamics of Afghan transit bring both opportunities and challenges for Central Asia. In order to avoid interregional competition and increased influence of external players, Central Asian countries should work out a coordinated strategy for the development of the southern direction of transit. Such an approach will maximize economic benefits and strengthen their position in the international transport system.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.