In her commentary, Nargiza Umarova emphasizes the growing multidirectionality and uncertainty in Uzbekistan’s strategy for the development of trans-Afghan transport corridors. Noting the intensification of work on the feasibility study of two routes – Kabul and Kandahar – she emphasizes that Russia’s participation in the project may change the balance of previous agreements, especially with such partners as the UAE and Qatar. The expert points out that the previously prioritized Kabul route is now facing competition from the alternative Kandahar corridor, which is also being actively promoted by Turkmenistan and potentially integrated into Iranian infrastructure projects.   The Kandahar route is seen as a profitable alternative to connect Central Asia not only to Pakistan, but also to Iran and, more broadly, to India through the port of Chabahar. Ms. Umarova emphasizes that geopolitical reality – instability in Pakistan, complications in Afghan-Pakistani relations, as well as Moscow’s ambitions to expand the North-South ITC – may induce Tashkent to reconsider its transportation priorities. At the same time, as the expert emphasizes, the lack of transparency in the financing of the new project and the Uzbek side's silence on its further steps create an atmosphere of uncertainty in which every diplomatic move acquires strategic significance.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The recent speech delivered by U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference — calling for a fundamental reassessment of global and European security arrangements — has catalysed a moment of reflection within Europe regarding its own strategic posture. European institutions, approaches, and value frameworks will retain their continuity; however, their future development will increasingly unfold with the prospect of limited — or minimal — U.S. involvement in mind. In this context, a recalibration of Europe’s approach towards China, India, Central and South Asia, the Middle East, and the Caucasus appears increasingly likely. There is a particular interest in the Caucasus and Central Asia, which can play the role of a bridge between East and West. The geopolitical location of these regions makes them very attractive for the European Union, which was confirmed during the First European Union – Central Asia Summit, which ended on April 4 in Samarkand with the signing of the Joint Declaration.   Summit Outcomes. The comprehensive mobilisation of the EU’s bureaucratic apparatus ensured that the summit’s outcomes were elevated to a structured and systemic level of cooperation. A formalised framework for bilateral engagement was established, including regular meetings of foreign ministers, working groups, and high-level platforms.   Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to deepening economic and investment ties. The European Union currently stands as Central Asia’s second-largest trading partner after China. As noted by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, trade turnover between the two regions reached €54 billion in 2024. Significantly, an agreement was reached to establish a regional office of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Uzbekistan — a move reflecting the substantial volume of European investments in regional initiatives, which already account for 40% of all foreign investment in Central Asia. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, also announced the launch of a new €12 billion Global Gateway investment package, aimed at supporting cooperation in infrastructure, digital connectivity, water and energy sectors, and critical raw materials. The EU also reaffirmed its intention to continue implementing its 2019 Strategy for Central Asia in key areas such as the green transition, climate change mitigation, energy, and sustainable agriculture.   In addition, the EU expressed its readiness to continue its Global Strategy for Central Asia (2019) in key areas such as green transition, climate change, energy, sustainable agriculture, as well as increased support for education programs through Erasmus+, Horizon Europe, Digital Education, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions.   In the domain of security, both sides outlined plans to intensify collaboration on counter-terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking, and organised crime, while also advancing border and migration management through platforms such as LEICA and BOMCA.   The Eurasian Highway. The Summit reiterated the particular importance of developing a network of extensive logistics routes and supply chains against the backdrop of ever deepening global fragmentation and geopolitical instability in key transportation hubs of international trade. In this regard, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), better known as the Middle Corridor, connecting China with Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, is of greatest interest to the EU. European institutions have already pledged €10 billion to support it during an investment forum in Brussels in January 2024. Global Gateway is therefore recognized as the main instrument of infrastructure cooperation between the EU and Central Asia. Thus, trade is no longer merely a pursuit of the shortest or least costly routes — it is an urgent quest for the most reliable, resilient, and politically sustainable supply chains that can endure uncertainty and reinforce strategic autonomy.   Region-to-Region Cooperation. The summit further affirmed the EU’s comprehensive support for regional integration in Central Asia. In recent years, Brussels has consistently advanced region-wide initiatives rather than focusing exclusively on bilateral channels. Alongside robust bilateral engagements that underpin effective collaboration, Central Asian states are also being encouraged to look beyond the C5+1 format and explore strategic partnerships with Azerbaijan. Such cooperation could pave the way for the EU to craft an alternative to its traditional Eastern Partnership — namely, a new Trans-Caspian Partnership.   This evolution necessitates more tailored engagement with subregions of Europe that play vital roles in transit and energy connectivity. Central Asia already maintains solid linkages with the Baltic states, which have proven themselves to be dynamic economic and investment partners. These established ties may serve as a foundation for expanding relations with the Nordic countries, thereby supporting external economic diversification and fostering a more multi-tiered political dialogue.   The Afghan Dilemma. In the broader context of global transformations, the European Union may soon revisit its policy towards Afghanistan. While the EU has exercised caution in dealing with Kabul, its strategic ally — the United States — has begun to signal a tentative re-engagement, evidenced by the informal visit to Afghanistan by former U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad in March 2025. Nevertheless, Brussels remains wary of moving too quickly, for several reasons.   First, the EU is sensitive to reputational risks drawing criticism from the democratic world.   Second, a renewed relationship with Kabul could lead to internal discourse shifts within the EU, given the electorate’s profound divergence from the Taliban on matters of civil society and governance.   Third, within Europe’s current strategic calculus, Afghanistan is often perceived as peripheral to core continental interests. However, if Europe were to place greater emphasis on deeper cooperation with Central Asia, Afghanistan could acquire newfound relevance as a strategic node.   In this regard, the EU may prefer a mediated approach, engaging Afghanistan indirectly through trusted regional partners. Uzbekistan stands out as a compelling intermediary. European policymakers recognise Tashkent’s pivotal role in Afghan affairs, particularly in the shared interest of fostering Afghanistan’s development through economic integration. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s proposal — voiced at the European Union – Central Asia Summit — to involve Afghanistan in regional economic processes closely aligns with the EU’s vision. Such initiatives may well draw the attention of European financial institutions towards investment opportunities in Afghanistan, representing a vital step towards enhancing the country’s economic stability.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The commentary is prepared under the supervision of Mushtariy Usmonova The commentary, authored by Parvina Kuchmurodova, a senior student at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy and an intern at the Centre for European Studies at IAIS, provides a comparative analysis of Estonia and Finland’s digitalization strategies. She examines how these two nations have emerged as global leaders in digital governance, each adopting distinct yet highly effective approaches to integrating digital technologies into public administration, business, and daily life. While Estonia has pioneered a radical digital transformation with its e-government infrastructure (such as the X-Road data exchange system and e-Residency programme), Finland has prioritized digital accessibility, robust ICT infrastructure, and strong business integration.   The analysis highlights key differences: Estonia’s focus on comprehensive digital public services and its global outreach through knowledge-sharing initiatives, versus Finland’s emphasis on digital literacy, broadband accessibility, and business-friendly digital policies. The author also explores how the two countries collaborate, particularly through shared cross-border digital frameworks, showcasing a commitment to advancing digitalization beyond national borders. By contrasting these models, the commentary offers insights into how different national contexts shape digital policies, providing valuable lessons for other countries seeking to enhance their digital governance and economic modernization.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The commentary by M. Cüneyt Özşahin, PhD, Visiting Research Fellow at the Center for American Studies, explores Türkiye’s evolving foreign policy towards Central Asia in the context of shifting global geopolitical dynamics. The author states that Türkiye’s positioning in the region is influenced by the policies of major powers, including Russia, China, the EU, and the US. He argues that Türkiye has moved from a traditionally Western-centric approach towards a more autonomous foreign policy, engaging with multiple actors while balancing its historical alliances. Dr. Özşahin highlights that the Ukraine crisis, the regime change in Syria, and shifts in US policy under Donald Trump are significant factors shaping Türkiye’s regional strategy.   The author examines Russia’s continued influence in Central Asia and how its involvement in Ukraine and Syria affects its regional standing. Dr. Özşahin states that Türkiye has maintained an ambivalent stance on the Ukraine conflict, mediating between Moscow and Kyiv while also supplying military support to Ukraine. He also discusses how Türkiye’s recent backing of Syrian opposition forces in the wake of the Assad regime’s downfall could strain its relations with Russia. Furthermore, he notes that Moscow’s challenges in these conflicts create power vacuums in Central Asia, which China is actively filling through economic initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, alongside strengthening ties with Türkiye.   The expert further explores how the US presidential elections of November 2024 and Trump’s return to power could influence global politics, including Central Asia. He states that Trump’s policies signal a shift towards unilateral coercion and a reduced emphasis on confronting Russia, which could allow Moscow to regain some geopolitical footing. Meanwhile, Trump’s focus on countering China may lead to greater US involvement in Central Asia, particularly in energy and economic sectors. He also suggests that tensions between the EU and the US might push European nations to seek stronger security cooperation, which could unexpectedly elevate Türkiye’s strategic importance in the region.   In conclusion, the author posits that Türkiye’s foreign policy in Central Asia is likely to evolve in response to these geopolitical transformations. Dr. Özşahin argues that Türkiye’s engagement in the region — through economic, military, and multilateral initiatives such as the Organization of Turkic States — positions it as a key player amidst growing competition between global powers. He suggests that, depending on the outcomes of Türkiye’s relations with the EU and other international actors, Ankara may pursue either deeper integration with Western institutions or pragmatic partnerships with China, Russia, and other regional stakeholders.   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The commentary is prepared under the supervision of the Center for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies   In his recent commentary, Firdavs Azimkulov, a research intern at IAIS, discusses the evolving relationship between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, particularly in light of the official visit by Mullah Abdul Ghani Barodar, the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, to Tashkent on February 22-23. Despite not formally recognizing the Taliban government, Uzbekistan’s engagement reflects a regional trend toward de facto normalization. Notably, Taliban officials were received at the airport by their appointed ambassador, Sheikh Abdul Ghafar Bahr — a diplomatic move previously achieved only with the UAE and China.   This visit follows Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov’s trip to Kabul on August 17, 2024, during which $2.5 billion in trade and investment deals were secured. Recent discussions between Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister for Trade and Investment, Jamshid Khodjaev, and Taliban delegates suggest that this figure is likely to grow. Mullah Barodar has called on Uzbekistan’s central bank to facilitate banking assistance to strengthen commercial ties and proposed the use of national currencies in mutual trade. Additionally, Uzbekistan has expressed readiness to invest in Afghanistan’s natural resources, including establishing a cement factory in Samangan province and initiating the Toti Maidan gas field project. Both sides have also discussed the 500 kV power transmission project, with costs revised to $222 million, aiming to transmit energy from Surkhan, Uzbekistan, to Afghanistan’s Dasht-E Alwan area.   The commentary highlights that these developments signify a new level of government-to-government diplomacy between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. By engaging in joint economic initiatives and fostering bilateral investments, both nations aim to enhance their economic and geopolitical standing. Notably, Uzbekistan was the first country to officially raise the flag of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan alongside its national flag during the delegation’s visit, symbolizing growing diplomatic acceptance.   Read on Paradigma.uz   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

On January 20 of this year, Donald Trump was officially sworn in as the 47th President of the United States of America. Due to cold weather, the inauguration took place inside the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C.   The Ceremony and the Inaugural Address   Present at the ceremony were former U.S. Presidents still living, including Joe Biden, as well as key political figures and high-ranking foreign guests, notably Han Zheng, Vice President of China. In addition to politicians, prominent business leaders attended, including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg, as well as Shou Zi Chew, CEO of TikTok.   Shortly before the ceremony, Biden signed an order pardoning members of his family, which — given the absence of any ongoing criminal proceedings against them — effectively guarantees them legal immunity in the future. Biden also wrote a letter to Trump but did not disclose its contents. “That’s between Trump and me”, he said.   Trump took the oath of office together with Vice President J.D. Vance, and the ceremonial atmosphere, replete with symbolic details, imbued the event with historical significance. In his inaugural address, Trump proclaimed the start of a “Golden Age of America”. He stated that his mission is to restore the nation’s greatness and improve the welfare of its citizens.   In the economic domain, Trump emphasized the need for an “industrial renaissance”, announcing the “Revival of America” program. This initiative aims to support domestic manufacturing, reduce the tax burden on businesses, and eliminate bureaucratic barriers. In addition, he promised to strengthen protectionist measures, including higher tariffs on imports, especially from China.   Trump expressed confidence that America must once again become the world leader in innovation, industry, and technology. He also confirmed his intention to complete the construction of the wall on the Mexican border to “put a permanent stop to illegal immigration”. As part of his stricter immigration policy, he promised to impose sanctions on employers hiring undocumented migrants and to implement a new merit-based immigration system focused on the economic contributions of immigrants. In addition, a program was announced to deport undocumented migrants with criminal records, which, he said, would improve public safety. Mexican drug cartels would be designated as terrorist organizations, enabling the use of regular military units against them.   In terms of foreign policy, Trump stated that the United States would seek peace and cooperation, while firmly defending its national interests. He underscored that America would not intervene in conflicts unrelated to its direct interests and would focus on bolstering the economy and defense capabilities. His statements on regaining U.S. control over the Panama Canal have drawn significant attention. Trump argued that America’s handover of control to Panama in 1999 was ill-advised.   Amid ongoing debates on gender identity, Trump declared that gender would be defined solely as male or female, which he said reflects biological reality. Moreover, his speech dedicated considerable attention to issues of freedom of speech and government censorship, especially in the context of digital platforms. Responding to criticism of the government’s control over the internet, Trump pledged decisive measures to lift state censorship and protect citizens’ right to freely express their opinions. In doing so, he effectively signaled his intent to deliver a powerful blow to the ideological platform of the Democratic Party, forcing it into a defensive position and prompting substantial reforms.   First Day of the Presidency   On his first day in the White House, Trump took a number of decisive steps, overturning 78 executive orders and memoranda from the Biden administration. Among other actions, he granted pardons to most of those charged in connection with the storming of the Capitol in January 2021. Trump also signed an executive order extending TikTok’s permission to operate in the United States for an additional 75 days and announced the country’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement on climate change. The justification offered was a loss of trust in international organizations, which may weaken the U.S. position as a global leader.   Consistent with promises made in his inaugural address, Trump signed an order directing the start of the process to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the “American Gulf”. He also signed orders tightening the requirements for obtaining U.S. citizenship and strengthening measures against unlawful entry across the southern border. In the field of energy, Trump reaffirmed his intention to increase oil and gas production by opening new drilling sites and declared plans to introduce a state of emergency in the energy sector to boost domestic production, reflecting his emphasis on energy independence and economic growth. Trump also announced plans to reform government institutions, including the Federal Reserve System, which could lead to changes in the fundamental foundations of American governance and the economy.   Although the Russia–Ukraine issue was not listed among his main priorities, Trump’s position on this matter remains significant. He stated that President Zelensky is prepared to make a “deal” with Russia, but noted the uncertainty of President Putin’s stance. At the same time, he suspended all foreign aid processes, including aid to Ukraine, in order to evaluate their effectiveness in light of U.S. national interests.   In addition, Trump announced the launch of the largest technological project in history — the development of artificial intelligence (AI) — with a budget of $500 billion allocated for the creation of a supercomputer and data processing center in Texas. To this end, Trump revoked Biden’s 2023 executive order that had restricted AI development for “safety” reasons. By doing so, he made clear that his administration aims to secure U.S. technological leadership in the global arena.   Trump’s immediate priority is forming his Cabinet. The U.S. Senate is currently holding hearings for nominees proposed by Trump for various posts. On Inauguration Day, the Senate approved Marco Rubio as Secretary of State by a majority vote. On his first day in office, Trump established a Department for Enhancing Government Efficiency headed by Elon Musk, who will serve under presidential authority at the White House.   Donald Trump’s 2025 inauguration symbolizes the ongoing transformation of American politics. The return to power of a leader known for his unconventional approach has raised numerous questions about the future of the United States and its role on the world stage. The long-term effects of the initiatives he has announced will depend on how they are carried out. If the administration manages to balance its actions without undermining democratic principles or minority rights, it could help strengthen public confidence in the political system. Otherwise, the radicalization of rhetoric and policies risks exacerbating social tensions.