The commentary by M. Cüneyt Özşahin, PhD, Visiting Research Fellow at the Center for American Studies, explores Türkiye’s evolving foreign policy towards Central Asia in the context of shifting global geopolitical dynamics. The author states that Türkiye’s positioning in the region is influenced by the policies of major powers, including Russia, China, the EU, and the US. He argues that Türkiye has moved from a traditionally Western-centric approach towards a more autonomous foreign policy, engaging with multiple actors while balancing its historical alliances. Dr. Özşahin highlights that the Ukraine crisis, the regime change in Syria, and shifts in US policy under Donald Trump are significant factors shaping Türkiye’s regional strategy.
The author examines Russia’s continued influence in Central Asia and how its involvement in Ukraine and Syria affects its regional standing. Dr. Özşahin states that Türkiye has maintained an ambivalent stance on the Ukraine conflict, mediating between Moscow and Kyiv while also supplying military support to Ukraine. He also discusses how Türkiye’s recent backing of Syrian opposition forces in the wake of the Assad regime’s downfall could strain its relations with Russia. Furthermore, he notes that Moscow’s challenges in these conflicts create power vacuums in Central Asia, which China is actively filling through economic initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, alongside strengthening ties with Türkiye.
The expert further explores how the US presidential elections of November 2024 and Trump’s return to power could influence global politics, including Central Asia. He states that Trump’s policies signal a shift towards unilateral coercion and a reduced emphasis on confronting Russia, which could allow Moscow to regain some geopolitical footing. Meanwhile, Trump’s focus on countering China may lead to greater US involvement in Central Asia, particularly in energy and economic sectors. He also suggests that tensions between the EU and the US might push European nations to seek stronger security cooperation, which could unexpectedly elevate Türkiye’s strategic importance in the region.
In conclusion, the author posits that Türkiye’s foreign policy in Central Asia is likely to evolve in response to these geopolitical transformations. Dr. Özşahin argues that Türkiye’s engagement in the region — through economic, military, and multilateral initiatives such as the Organization of Turkic States — positions it as a key player amidst growing competition between global powers. He suggests that, depending on the outcomes of Türkiye’s relations with the EU and other international actors, Ankara may pursue either deeper integration with Western institutions or pragmatic partnerships with China, Russia, and other regional stakeholders.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
