In their incisive policy brief, Islomkhon Gafarov and IAIS volunteers Bobur Mingyasharov and Bositkhon Islamov provide a structured and comprehensive analysis of the latest and most severe escalation in India-Pakistan tensions, triggered by a deadly terrorist attack in April 2025. The report is both timely and significant, as it places the attack and its aftermath in a broader geopolitical, regional, and institutional context. The authors demonstrate a nuanced understanding of the security architecture in South Asia and identify the risks of a wider interstate conflict with remarkable clarity.
The policy brief begins with a factual account of the April 22 terrorist assault in the Pahalgam district of Jammu and Kashmir, which resulted in 26 fatalities. The group “Kashmir Resistance”, allegedly affiliated with Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility. India’s claims of Pakistani complicity — backed by allegations of intelligence involvement — form the backdrop to a sweeping series of retaliatory moves, both military and diplomatic. The authors meticulously list and assess India’s responses, from mass detentions and infrastructure demolitions to the drastic step of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, a long-standing pillar of bilateral water-sharing and a foundational agreement for regional cooperation.
In parallel, the authors explore Pakistan’s countermeasures and diplomatic posture. Islamabad’s firm denial of involvement in the attack, coupled with its readiness to submit to an international investigation, is presented as a calculated attempt to internationalize the crisis and rally global sympathy. Pakistan’s reciprocal expulsion of Indian citizens, suspension of trade, and closure of airspace represent a measured but firm riposte. Particularly insightful is the authors’ discussion of Pakistan’s non-permanent seat at the UN Security Council, which Islamabad appears intent on leveraging to gain moral and diplomatic high ground.
An important contribution of the brief lies in its focus on international actors. The authors highlight the calibrated support India has received from Western powers, the Gulf states, and even Russia and Ukraine — framing it within the global consensus against terrorism. Iran’s mediation efforts, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, are examined as a diplomatic overture balancing Tehran’s strategic ties with both Delhi and Islamabad. The inclusion of Iran’s role demonstrates the authors’ broader regional lens and their understanding of evolving multipolar dynamics. Similarly, China’s predictable alignment with Pakistan is described as part of its long-term strategic calculus, anchored in the CPEC and wider regional ambitions.
Perhaps most compelling are the forward-looking scenarios the authors present. They warn of the potential for cross-border military escalation, proxy conflicts involving separatist groups, and even a reconfiguration of regional alignments, including possible shifts in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. The brief astutely observes that the Kashmir crisis may test the credibility of multilateral institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which appears increasingly paralyzed in the face of a direct confrontation between two of its major members.
In sum, this policy brief is a cogent and multifaceted analysis of a developing regional crisis with global repercussions. By combining factual reporting with geopolitical foresight, the authors provide not only a valuable resource for policymakers and analysts, but also a stark reminder of the enduring volatility of South Asia’s most intractable fault line.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
