Dr. Islomkhon Gafarov, in his report “Neighbourhood Perspectives: Security Situation in Afghanistan – Implications for Central Asia, Europe, and Global Stability”, supported by Friedrich Naumann Foundation (Germany), examines Afghanistan’s evolving security landscape following the Taliban’s return to power. He argues that the Taliban, while maintaining their ideological roots, have adopted a more pragmatic approach to governance and international engagement. The report provides a historical overview, detailing how shifting geopolitical priorities, particularly the U.S. and NATO’s withdrawal, have left Afghanistan in a precarious position, struggling with internal instability and external pressures. Dr. Gafarov highlights the Taliban’s ambiguous stance on terrorism, noting their opposition to the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) while simultaneously fostering ties with groups such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which continues to pose a challenge to regional security.
The author further explores Afghanistan’s relationships with neighbouring states, illustrating how the Taliban have sought to diversify their foreign engagements to counterbalance their dependence on Pakistan. He outlines how Iran has emerged as a key economic partner, particularly through the development of the Chabahar port, while China has shown increasing interest in integrating Afghanistan into its Belt and Road Initiative. Dr. Gafarov also discusses India’s growing engagement, driven by its strategic interests in counterterrorism and regional connectivity, and Russia’s cautious but strengthening ties with Kabul, particularly in the fight against terrorism. Central Asian states, he argues, have taken a pragmatic approach, engaging with the Taliban to ensure regional stability while remaining wary of the ideological influence and security threats emanating from Afghanistan.
Dr. Gafarov asserts that Afghanistan’s security situation has significant implications for Europe, where concerns over terrorism, radicalization, drug trafficking, and human rights violations dominate discussions on engagement with the Taliban. He notes that while the Taliban have expressed interest in accessing European markets through Türkiye, European governments remain hesitant due to ongoing human rights abuses, particularly concerning women’s rights and freedom of expression. The report also examines the role of the European Union in providing humanitarian aid and calls for a coordinated approach with Central Asian states to address Afghanistan’s challenges collectively.
In conclusion, the report presents Afghanistan as a critical geopolitical player at the intersection of multiple regional and global interests. The author recommends that European policymakers adopt a more nuanced approach, balancing humanitarian assistance with strategic engagement while monitoring the Taliban’s evolving policies. He underscores the importance of international cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism efforts, and urges investment in economic and infrastructure projects that could contribute to Afghanistan’s long-term stability. Ultimately, he argues that while Afghanistan remains a source of significant challenges, it also offers opportunities for constructive diplomatic and economic engagement if approached with a clear and coordinated strategy.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
