Artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved into an essential economic foundation of the present global economy. The World Trade Report 2025 establishes that AI functions as a general-purpose technology which has the same transformative power as electricity and the steam engine did to reshape entire economic systems. The report achieves dual importance because it evaluates AI economic potential while warning about increased social disparities when nations pursue isolated development paths or fail to work together.
The report demonstrates how AI technology will transform trade operations and create inclusive economic expansion through various mechanisms. AI technology reduces trade expenses through its ability to speed up customs operations and improve supply chain visibility and language translation services and provide digital tools for small and medium-sized enterprises to enter international markets. The joint study between the WTO and ICC revealed that 90% of businesses using AI technology achieved concrete advantages while 50% of respondents indicated AI systems improved their ability to handle trade-related risks. The research demonstrates how AI technology enables more businesses from developing nations to join international trade activities.
Professionals forecast machine intelligence's ability to accelerate productivity growth globally by about 0.68 percentage points per annum, delivering a 37% increase of trade volumes around the world and a 13% development of global GDP by 2040. Of critical importance is the fact that information services – a cluster comprising cloud technologies, software products, and AI-based services – could expand trade by more than a 40% threshold, meaning digital economies and service-based growth models now possess a considerable competitive advantage.
However, the report also identifies critical challenges. Artificial Intelligence may exacerbate divergence between advanced and developing economies if policy coordination is not properly coordinated. Those economies having larger incomes with better infrastructure, improved digital qualities, and better government, are set to gain by far. Conversely, low-income economies are set to be further isolated by their weak digital infrastructure and deficiency of technical know-how. Modelling by the WTO reveals high-income economies are set to achieve income gains of up to 14%, yet low-income economies may achieve a meagre 8% if they fail to invest first in digital technologies and implement inclusive policies. If low-income economies are, however, equal their counterparts in infrastructure and uptake of AI, their income growth potential becomes even larger theirs.
Another crucial aspect addressed by the report pertains to the labor market and inequality. With regard to overall pay, it will rise, but it is also estimated to fall for highly and moderately qualified individuals, as their jobs are automatable more compared to less qualified individuals. It might alleviate income inequality but challenge middle-class workers, for which there is a strong need for retraining and adjustment of skills policies.
The WTO report shows how a multilateral, rules-based trading system is essential for AI to help all. Such rules as the Information Technology Agreement (ITA), the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), and the TRIPS Agreement are already doing their job by cutting down equipment prices, simplifying services trade, and stimulating innovation.
The WTO also devised the AI Trade Policy Openness Index (AI-TPOI), which shows large cross-country differences across service barriers, trade barriers, and data regulation. Remarkably, economies of low income are observed to be more open, but it primarily indicates a deficiency of adequate regulation and infrastructure necessary for adequate integration of AI.
To make AI a genuine inclusive growth driver, it should also be accompanied by complementary policies. Today, a large majority of funding, programmes, and subsidies for AI for educational purposes remain concentrated in industrialized countries, hence increasing odds of AI benefits getting stuck in those economies. It is also necessary for trade rules and institutions of AI governance to collaborate. Regional trade policy initiatives are barely even venturing into addressing AI, and they comprise largely a group of advanced economies, encompassing barely a circle of urgent source of concern.
The influence of artificial intelligence could exacerbate cross-country distances or induce more social cohesion – depending on what happens at this moment of time. The report also stresses how essential transparency, policy discourse, and upgrading capacities by initiatives such as Digital Trade for Africa and Women Exporters in the Digital Economy Fund (WEIDE) are. Those examples derive how it is achievable for inclusivity if supported by comprehensive policies and enough finances.
It is clearly concluded that AI has the potential to enhance global trade, raise incomes, and expand access to economic growth. It, however, awaits necessary investment for digital infrastructure, human capital development, and sound global policy framework. World Trade Organization holds a critical position to guarantee a trade policy supports universal access to AI technologies, compensates for regulatory bifurcation, and engenders a sense of shared prosperity. The coming years will be decisive: whether AI divides or unites mankind rests on our common policy decisions and collaborative actions across nations.
For Uzbekistan as the nation moves toward a more diverse and innovation-based economy, the results revealed in the WTO World Trade Report 2025 have significant relevance. As Uzbekistan is in the process of digitalization, education reform, and in the accession process to the WTO, transformational potential of artificial intelligence in the areas of trade and production put Uzbekistan in a favorable position. With investing into digital infrastructure, data management, and education in line with AI will help Uzbekistan integrate into global value chains and strengthen the export competitiveness – especially in the textile, agricultural, and services sectors. Insights of the report align with Uzbekistan's national development goals that seek regional inequality mitigation and the strengthening of human capital. Uzbekistan will not only benefit from the center for smart, sustainable, and inclusive economic growth in Central Asia, but could also enhance its competencies through active participation in the multilateral trade system, complemented by the proactive adoption of AI-based trade facilitation policies.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
