Islomkhon Gafarov’s policy brief titled “Evolution of the Taliban: Changes in Behavior and Strategy”, published in the Volume 8 of Afghanistan Monitor, delves into the strategic shifts within the Taliban’s governance model since their return to power in August 2021. Mr. Gafarov articulates a nuanced perspective, arguing that despite the ideological rigidity rooted in Deobandi interpretations of Islamic law, the Taliban have exhibited pragmatic shifts in their governance and foreign policy approaches.
The author posits that the Taliban’s recent internal reforms suggest a shift towards more rational and strategic governance. While their core ideology remains unchanged, particularly their adherence to the principles of Sharia and Pashtunwali, there are indications of a more practical approach in both domestic administration and international relations. A significant aspect of Mr. Gafarov’s analysis focuses on the Taliban’s altered stance towards terrorism. Unlike their previous rule, where Afghanistan became a sanctuary for global jihadist networks, the current regime is actively combating groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS-Khorasan (ISKP).
He also highlights the Taliban’s evolving foreign policy, noting their increased diplomatic outreach to non-Muslim nations, which marks a departure from their isolationist policies of the 1990s. This includes engagements with China, Russia, and Central Asian neighbours, aimed at securing economic investments and infrastructure development. Despite the apparent pragmatism, Islomkhon Gafarov remains cautious in his assessment, suggesting that these shifts might be temporary and aimed at achieving specific political gains, both domestically and internationally.
This policy brief offers a critical lens through which to understand the Taliban’s evolving strategies, portraying a regime that is cautiously adapting to new realities while striving to maintain its core ideological identity.
For reference: The Afghanistan Monitor is a comprehensive publication from the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Pakistan, which provides a nuanced analysis of the political, economic, security, and humanitarian landscape in Afghanistan from June to August 2024. This edition marks three years since the Taliban’s takeover, offering in-depth insights into the challenges and transformations facing the nation. It covers a wide range of topics including human rights, economic developments, infrastructure projects, and diplomatic engagements, with contributions from experts exploring the evolving situation in Afghanistan under Taliban rule.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
