In his commentary, Miraziz Masharipov, member of the IAIS Volunteers Club, argues that international relations today are being fundamentally reshaped by growing power polarization, creating a more chaotic and unstable world order. He explains that the traditional global political architecture is eroding, particularly with the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, which has accelerated existing trends. Mr. Masharipov points to three key dynamics behind this transformation: the emergence of non-traditional technological hubs, the deepening ideological gap between ultra-right and ultra-left forces, and an escalating conflict among global elites.
The author first highlights how technological power is shifting away from traditional centres like Silicon Valley to new hubs in China, India, Vietnam, Brazil, and Africa. He tells how these regions are not merely adopting but actively reshaping the future of technologies such as AI, quantum computing, and decentralized infrastructure. Yet, he warns, the expansion of these hubs is threatened by issues such as state overreach, as seen in China, and brain drain from emerging economies. This technological decentralisation, he suggests, will undermine Western leadership in setting global standards by 2030.
He then turns to the worsening ideological polarisation, particularly between ultra-right and ultra-left forces in Europe and the Americas. Mr. Masharipov describes how populist movements have eroded the traditional centrist consensus that once underpinned multilateral cooperation, with Trump’s nationalist policies further encouraging fragmentation. He argues that the paralysis within the EU and the rise of nationalist governments have weakened responses to major crises like the war in Ukraine and climate change, thereby turning international politics into a dangerously unpredictable arena.
Finally, the author discusses the evolving conflict among elites, focusing on Trump’s approach to foreign policy. He tells how Trump, unlike Biden, has chosen to engage authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un through personal diplomacy, positioning himself as a global dealmaker. He contends that this style of transactional leadership prioritises personal relations over institutional norms, thereby exacerbating the fragmentation of global governance. In conclusion, Mr. Masharipov paints a bleak picture of a world increasingly dominated by technological decentralisation, ideological extremism, and elite rivalries, all of which threaten to unravel the already fragile international system.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
