The brief by Abdugani Karimov examines Japan’s political trajectory after the appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s first female prime minister in October 2025. It frames her leadership as a shift from cautious pacifism towards “proactive governance” that blends economic intervention, strategic autonomy, and a renewed emphasis on national identity—an approach the author conceptualises as “strategic conservatism.”
A substantial part of the brief is devoted to Takaichi’s domestic agenda, presented as a state-led effort to restore growth and public confidence. It highlights fiscal measures such as abolishing the temporary gasoline tax, raising the income-tax exemption threshold, piloting refundable tax credits, and deploying a supplementary budget of roughly 14 trillion yen to support domestic demand and digital infrastructure. The paper identifies the most consequential economic-security linkage in the return to nuclear energy, including a plan to restart at least 17 reactors by 2030, supported—according to an NHK poll cited in the brief—by 54% of respondents (37% opposed), signalling a notable shift in public attitudes after Fukushima.
On foreign and security policy, the brief describes a move from “cautious pacifism” to “controlled assertiveness,” reflected in goals such as raising defence spending to 2% of GDP and prioritising cyber/space defence integration, a Strategic Intelligence Agency, and counter-strike capabilities. It also outlines a calibrated approach to China via the “three-D” formula—Deterrence, Dialogue, Diversification—combining firmness on sovereignty and technology with maintained diplomatic channels to avoid open confrontation.
Finally, the brief argues that Japan’s Central Asia policy under Takaichi is shifting from “quiet diplomacy” to a more multidimensional strategy that connects culture with technology, infrastructure, energy security, and indirect security engagement. Central Asia is presented as both an energy and logistics corridor and a “balancing platform” amid China’s expanding presence, with the potential revival of the “Central Asia + Japan” framework serving as a vehicle for supply-chain resilience, human-capital development, and high-quality infrastructure cooperation.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
