In a recent analysis in Kun.uz, Hamza Boltaev, Head of the Centre for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies, and Senior Research Fellow Islomkhon Gafarov argue that the recent Munich Security Conference signified a major shift in the global order, challenging the traditional transatlantic alliance between Europe and the United States. They state that the emerging divergence in U.S. and EU foreign policies — exemplified by Washington’s direct negotiations with Russia on Ukraine, bypassing European involvement — raises critical questions about the future trajectory of European diplomacy. In light of this, the authors explore how the European Union may redefine its engagement with key actors and regions such as China, Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia, as it seeks to assert greater strategic autonomy.
They suggest that Europe may reassess its stance towards China, Iran, and Afghanistan, given that past policies were largely shaped by U.S. influence. They highlight the potential for the EU to deepen economic ties with China through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, while also reconsidering its approach to Iran as an energy partner, independent of Washington’s policies. The authors also point out that Afghanistan, previously viewed through the lens of NATO intervention, could now be engaged in a more pragmatic manner by the EU. Furthermore, they examine the evolving dynamics in relations with India and Türkiye, emphasizing that Brussels may prioritize strategic transport corridors and trade expansion. Ultimately, they conclude that while Europe faces significant geopolitical challenges, these changes also create opportunities for strengthened cooperation with emerging regional powers.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
