The authors, Hamza Boltaev and Dr. Islomkhon Gafarov, argue that Uzbekistan’s evolving strategy towards Northern Afghanistan is driven by pragmatic economic and geopolitical considerations. They state that Tashkent has moved beyond a traditional security-first approach to one that prioritizes economic engagement and infrastructural development. This shift is exemplified by Uzbekistan’s commitment to increasing bilateral trade with Afghanistan, with a stated goal of reaching a turnover of $3 billion, alongside key projects such as the expansion of trade centers and the Trans-Afghan transport corridor.
They highlight the deep historical ties between Uzbekistan and Northern Afghanistan, particularly in provinces such as Balkh, Jowzjan, and Faryab, where significant Uzbek communities reside. They state that these connections, dating back to the Emirate of Bukhara, provide a strong foundation for Uzbekistan’s policy. They further argue that while the Qosh-Tepa Canal presents potential water-related tensions, Tashkent’s strategy focuses on fostering economic development in Northern Afghanistan as a means of ensuring stability. The authors suggest that Uzbekistan’s approach balances caution with engagement, aiming to position itself as a key economic partner while avoiding direct political entanglements.
The policy brief also underscores Uzbekistan’s use of soft power through educational initiatives, such as funding the construction of the “Khair al-Mudaris Imam Bukhari” madrasah in Mazar-i-Sharif. The authors contend that by supporting religious and intellectual development, Uzbekistan seeks to counter radical ideologies and solidify its influence among Afghanistan’s religious and political elites. However, they caution that challenges remain, including shifting ethnic dynamics in Northern Afghanistan, growing Chinese economic interests, and potential energy market realignments that could diminish Uzbekistan’s role.
Ultimately, Mr. Boltaev and Dr. Gafarov conclude that Uzbekistan’s policy reflects an effort to integrate Afghanistan more closely into the broader Central Asian region. They state that Tashkent’s focus on economic cooperation, regional stability, and infrastructural development demonstrates a long-term commitment to fostering bilateral relations beyond immediate security concerns. While challenges persist, the authors suggest that Uzbekistan’s nuanced approach positions it as a critical player in shaping Afghanistan’s future, particularly in its northern provinces.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
