Recently, economic and political rivalry between China and the US, including the trade war, has become a key factor in world politics. The global order formed during the era of globalization is being destabilized. The conflict between the two leading global economic players affects the entire world. The analysis presents the assessments of two leading international relations experts directly associated with Chinese government structures: Yang Xuetong from Tsinghua University and Wang Jisi from Peking University.
Technological competition between China and the United States
The changing structure of trade and technological relations between China and the United States reflects growing strategic tensions and a course towards selective decoupling. The Trump administration’s America First policy marked a shift towards protectionism and attempts to curb China’s growth in key sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence and advanced technologies. However, despite the tough rhetoric and tariff measures, their practical application has been limited by economic realities.
Business circles in both countries are interested in maintaining bilateral trade and investment, especially in strategically important areas such as agriculture and pharmaceuticals. Complete disengagement is seen as economically unfeasible.
Technological rivalry remains at the heart of the tension, but the depth of interdependence and the high cost of disrupting global supply chains make a complete split unlikely. The European Union takes a more balanced position, emphasizing multilateralism and regulatory autonomy, seeking to preserve technological sovereignty without open confrontation.
Overall, a model of partial, selective disengagement while maintaining limited cooperation is emerging.
Deglobalization and leadership dynamics
Recent geopolitical changes point to a trend towards deglobalization, accompanied by the fragmentation of international relations and the redistribution of global leadership between the US, China and the EU. The US withdrawal from international institutions under the Trump administration, including the WHO and the Paris Agreement, as well as the strengthening of unilateral initiatives, expressed Washington’s growing skepticism towards multilateral formats. This weakened the soft power of the US, reducing the attractiveness of its model and undermining its normative leadership. Internal crises in American democracy and the increasingly coercive nature of its foreign policy have only reinforced these trends.
Against this backdrop, China continues its economic growth and pursuit of national rejuvenation, strengthening its international influence without directly challenging the existing order. This is perceived in Washington as a strategic threat.
The interaction between these actors reflects a shift in the global balance. The United States retains its superiority in ‘hard power,’ but China is closing the gap, especially in high technology. The world is becoming less integrated and more strategically tense, where leadership is determined not so much by economic or military potential as by the ability to manage multiple, overlapping crises.
Prospects for cooperation during Trump’s second term
Donald Trump’s second term as US president is expected to complicate relations with China and the international community. The America First policy, focused on protectionism and unilateral action, will increase tensions, especially in trade, technology and ideology. Despite his confrontational rhetoric, Trump’s transactional style allows for deals that benefit the US, although internal disagreements between security hawks and economic pragmatists make it difficult to develop a consistent policy.
Pressure on China will be maintained through sanctions on human rights issues in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan, while maintaining the ‘one China’ policy. Military and economic cooperation between China and the US is possible but limited by bureaucratic and political barriers, especially in the areas of military communications and crisis management. The EU will face US demands for fair trade and increased defence spending, balancing between countering Russian aggression and preventing escalation.
On the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Trump is inclined to be cautious and minimise military involvement, giving priority to domestic issues. Overall, Trump’s second term promises increased bilateral tensions, transactional diplomacy, and domestic political divisions that will require careful management to prevent escalation and maintain limited cooperation.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
