The virtual discussion hosted by the Carnegie Endowment delved into the complexities of China’s evolving role in Central Asia, challenging the conventional Western perspective that Beijing imposes its influence indiscriminately. Odil Gafarov, non-resident associate research fellow, was among the speakers, who emphasized that while China undoubtedly wields considerable economic and strategic power in the region, its engagement is often more adaptive than coercive. They highlighted that local actors — whether governments, businesses, or societal groups — actively shape the terms of their cooperation with China, leveraging Beijing’s interests to secure benefits tailored to their own developmental and political needs. This process, as the experts noted, underscores a dynamic interaction rather than unilateral imposition, where Central Asian states skillfully navigate their relations with China to maintain a degree of autonomy while maximizing economic opportunities.
The panelists also explored the nuanced strategies employed by both China and its Central Asian partners to manage this relationship. They pointed out that while Beijing prioritizes stability and economic expansion through initiatives such as the Belt and Road, it often accommodates local preferences, whether in investment structuring, infrastructure projects, or diplomatic engagements. The speakers noted that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan each approach China differently, balancing economic reliance with strategic diversification. They argued that rather than being passive recipients of Chinese influence, these nations actively negotiate and recalibrate their engagements, demonstrating a level of agency that is often overlooked in Western analyses.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
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