At the end of February 2026, a series of military conflicts erupted simultaneously along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border and the Middle East, particularly in the territory of Iran. The escalation of tensions along Afghanistan’s western and eastern frontiers has significantly worsened the humanitarian situation in the country. Against the backdrop of ongoing instability, the situation has created a complex balance of risks and opportunities for Central Asian states. On the one hand, security risks are likely to increase. On the other hand, Afghanistan’s growing economic vulnerability opens additional space for political influence from its northern neighbors.

Amid an already existing structural crisis, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East has dealt a particularly severe blow to Afghanistan. As a result, the Afghan authorities have effectively lost the capacity to contain rising prices in the short-term period, largely due to shrinking opportunities for trade diversification. Under these conditions, the northern corridor through Central Asia is emerging as virtually the only viable alternative, at least in the near term.

For Central Asian states themselves, the prospect of deepening humanitarian engagement with Afghanistan during a time of crisis is inherently dual in nature: while it entails certain risks, it may also generate significant benefits for several reasons.

Firstly, the ongoing conflicts have effectively placed Afghanistan between two major geopolitical fault lines. Since November of the previous year, the closure of the border with Pakistan has disrupted traditional supply routes, while the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has also put imports from Iran at risk. As a result, March 2026 saw a sharp increase in prices, particularly for food and medical supplies. For years, Afghanistan’s geographic and political proximity to Iran provided favorable conditions for transit trade, making Iran one of the country’s largest trading partners, with an estimated turnover of around $3.2 billion. However, under current conditions, this relationship has turned into a critical dependency. This is evidenced by the most pronounced price increases being recorded in provinces bordering Iran, such as Herat.

The situation has been further aggravated by the setback to the Chabahar port project, which had been viewed as a key alternative route bypassing Pakistani transit corridors. Ongoing instability in the region now casts doubt not only on the port’s viability but also on broader infrastructure initiatives. In effect, Afghanistan is facing an unprecedented level of logistical isolation.

Secondly, rising tensions around Afghanistan’s borders have led to a unique pattern of dual refugee flows, placing additional strain on already fragile local infrastructure. According to reports by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory have increased the likelihood of a new wave of displacement, with implications for neighboring countries. Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable in this regard, as Iran has long served as one of the largest host countries for Afghan migrants.

Recent developments at border crossings indicate an unusual trend: thousands of Afghans who previously held legal status in Iran are now returning home. Whereas deportations once dominated cross-border flows, there is now a noticeable increase in so-called “voluntary” returns. Reports suggest that up to 1,500 individuals per day, including those with valid passports and residence permits are leaving Iran.

A similar pattern is emerging along Afghanistan’s eastern borders. According to UN data, more than 100,000 people were displaced within the first week of clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan. In addition, Afghan media report that forced deportations continue at a rate of up to 20,000 individuals per week. Importantly, a large share of returnees lack both financial resources and viable opportunities for rapid economic reintegration. This not only increases pressure on the domestic economy but also risks becoming a source of longer term socio-economic instability. The current cyclical nature of migration flows further undermines Afghanistan’s resilience to ongoing crises.

Thirdly, declining international funding combined with disruptions to logistical routes has deepened Afghanistan’s economic vulnerability. This leaves the Taliban authorities with limited capacity to stabilize the domestic market or maintain social order. The situation is further exacerbated by a shortfall in donor support. According to Georgette Gagnon, Acting Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), a sharp reduction in funding has significantly worsened the humanitarian outlook. In 2026, humanitarian organizations planned to assist 17.5 million Afghans, requiring $1.71 billion in funding. However, only around 10% of this amount has been secured to date.

Beyond financial constraints, the conflict has also created barriers to physical access for humanitarian assistance. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that several of its transit centers have suffered damage during recent fighting along the Pakistani border. Moreover, the organization has suspended operations in a number of provinces due to security concerns. Despite growing needs, the ability to deliver aid remains severely constrained. In this context, underfunding has become a critical factor exacerbating the crisis.

Fourthly, there has been a marked deterioration in food security. Over the past year, this issue has become as prominent on the international agenda on the same level as gender inequality. Data from the World Food Programme indicate a dramatic worsening of the situation. It is estimated that in the winter of 2026, more than 17 million Afghans were facing acute food insecurity. This figure saw an increase of 3 million compared to the previous year. Particularly alarming is the rise in malnutrition among vulnerable groups. Nearly 4 million children are suffering from malnutrition, many of whom require urgent medical assistance. International organizations notethat the food crisis has reached its peak in recent decades, with some acknowledging that they are no longer able to meet emergency needs due to insufficient funding.

The factors mentioned above point to Afghanistan’s critical dependence on external assistance. At the same time, existing infrastructure and the political willingness of Central Asian states to engage, particularly Uzbekistan,  with Afghanistan may create a paradoxical opportunity. Prolonged military and political crises in the Middle East, combined with strained relations with Pakistan, are likely to further strengthen and expand the presence of Central Asian goods within Afghanistan’s import structure. In the long term, this may contribute to the development of more stable and trust-based economic ties between the countries.

Looking ahead, Central Asian states may capitalize on the current situation to consolidate their role as key transit and humanitarian hubs linking Afghanistan with the outside world. The development of transport and logistics infrastructure, the expansion of humanitarian programs, and improved regional coordination could contribute both to stabilizing Afghanistan’s economy and to enhancing regional connectivity.

Thus, despite the evident risks, the current crisis has the potential to reshape the regional architecture of cooperation. Provided that a coordinated policy is developed, Central Asian states may not only mitigate security threats but also use the situation to expand economic engagement, strengthen transport corridors and enhance their geopolitical significance in the region.