In her new article, IAIS Senior Research Fellow Nargiza Umarova analyses the impact of Afghanistan’s transport infrastructure on regional integration and Central Asia’s economic prospects. The author emphasizes that since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the countries of the region have intensified efforts to diversify their trade routes, reducing their dependence on Russia. Particular attention is paid to the southern direction of transit, where the key partners of Central Asia are Iran and Afghanistan. The Taliban, while in power, have shown determination in developing transport corridors, including the construction of railways and infrastructure facilities such as the Kabul and Lazurite corridors.
An important part of the study is to look at the competition and interaction between different states in transport policy. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are promoting an alternative route via Torghundi-Gerat-Kandahar-Spin-Buldak, which could compete with the Trans-Afghan railway Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar actively supported by Uzbekistan. The author emphasizes that the development of these routes increases the transit capacity of the region, but could also lead to geopolitical rivalries and revision of strategic interests of major players such as Russia, Iran and China.
The article also touches on Moscow’s role in Afghan transit. In the face of Western sanctions, Russia has shown interest in expanding the North-South International Transport Corridor with access to Pakistan via Afghanistan. In this context, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan can play a key role by attracting significant cargo flows. At the same time, Iran and India are developing their own initiatives, such as the Chabahar port and railway routes, in an effort to provide alternative routes to Central Asia, which could weaken the position of the Uzbek Kabul corridor.
Nargiza Umarova concludes by noting that the dynamics of Afghan transit bring both opportunities and challenges for Central Asia. In order to avoid interregional competition and increased influence of external players, Central Asian countries should work out a coordinated strategy for the development of the southern direction of transit. Such an approach will maximize economic benefits and strengthen their position in the international transport system.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
