Are Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Relations Entering a New Phase?

Commentary

09 July, 2025

Share

Are Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Relations Entering a New Phase?

By Mirjalol Murtozaev

 

On July 3, 2025, within the framework of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit held in the city of Khankendi, Azerbaijan, a historic high-level meeting took place between the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and the acting deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs of Afghanistan’s Interim Government, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. This marked the first official high-level engagement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The meeting, held on the sidelines of the ECO Summit, reflects the growing dynamism of Uzbekistan’s diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan. While Uzbekistan has gradually intensified its diplomatic outreach toward Afghanistan since 2021, this encounter signals the opening of a new chapter-one characterized by direct dialogue at the highest levels of leadership. This development demonstrates not only Uzbekistan’s sustained interest in Afghanistan but also its broader strategic objective of strengthening and activating its regional diplomacy. Uzbekistan’s proactive approach indicates a deliberate effort to expand its role as a stabilizing actor and constructive partner in regional affairs, particularly concerning the Afghan direction.

 

This suggests that Uzbekistan is not only engaging in direct dialogue with Afghanistan but is also beginning to utilize its diplomacy through international platforms. It is likely that Uzbekistan will continue to demonstrate activity in such multilateral formats. In particular, Afghanistan’s participation may be expected at the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit scheduled to take place in China on August 31 and September 1, 2025. Uzbekistan has long advocated for the revival of the “SCO–Afghanistan Contact Group” within the framework of the organization. Developments in this direction appear increasingly likely. Moreover, opportunities are emerging for Afghanistan to be involved in processes within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States and other regional bodies, with Uzbekistan potentially playing a facilitating role. Uzbekistan promotes a cooperative and balanced political approach to the Afghan issue, grounded in international consensus. This evolving strategy is elevating Uzbekistan’s relations with Afghanistan to a new level while simultaneously enhancing the scope and sophistication of Uzbek diplomacy itself. The consistency in this approach indicates that Uzbekistan is committed to supporting Afghanistan’s integration into the international community through constructive and inclusive engagement.

 

It is unlikely that Afghanistan will be able to fully reintegrate into the international community in a short period of time. In this regard, Uzbekistan is contributing to the process by supporting a gradual, step-by-step approach. High-level meetings of this nature may serve as a model for other countries, encouraging greater international attention toward Afghanistan and potentially leading to an increase in humanitarian assistance - particularly in support of the Afghan people.

 

Furthermore, Uzbekistan has expressed its intention to advance an initiative titled “Communicating the Real Situation in Afghanistan within the United Nations Framework.” This proposal aims to foster a more informed and pragmatic international dialogue about developments in the country.

 

During the bilateral meeting, the two sides focused on several key areas of cooperation:

 

First, in the field of transport connectivity, the importance of the Trans-Afghan Railway Project was once again emphasized. Both sides agreed on the need to accelerate the project and intensify practical steps toward its realization. The railway corridor is expected to link Uzbekistan with Pakistan’s Peshawar and, ultimately, the ports of the Indian Ocean via Afghanistan. The project’s major advantages include significantly reducing transportation costs and shortening delivery times, making it a strategic asset for regional trade.

 

Additionally, concrete initiatives such as the development of the Termez International Trade Center were discussed. This platform would allow Afghanistan - particularly its agricultural sector - to utilize Uzbekistan’s transit infrastructure for exporting goods to Central Asia and Russia.

 

Second, Uzbekistan expressed interest in investing in several key sectors of the Afghan economy. Among the priority areas mentioned were the construction of the Balkh-Herat–Kandahar railway, cement and textile production, electronic governance systems, salt processing, and the establishment of oil refining facilities. These investments would not only stimulate Afghanistan’s economic revitalization but could also position Uzbekistan as one of the country’s leading foreign investors.

 

Third, Mullah Baradar emphasized that bilateral trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan has already surpassed $1 billion and expressed his desire to increase it to $2 billion in the near future. This projection appears realistic, considering that by the end of 2024, the total volume of trade between the two countries exceeded $1.13 billion - a 30.7% increase compared to 2023. Of that total, $1.09 billion accounted for Uzbekistan’s exports of goods and services to Afghanistan. During the first five months of 2025, bilateral trade grew to $622 million, marking a 62.8% increase compared to the same period the previous year. In this context, the opening of Uzbekistan’s trade houses in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif, along with the signing of the Preferential Trade Agreement in June 2025, serves as concrete evidence of an increasingly proactive and structured trade diplomacy between the two countries.

 

Fourth, the dialogue concluded with an agreement to establish a joint working group that will convene quarterly to coordinate the implementation of previously agreed commitments. This development is expected to bring strategic coherence and institutional continuity to bilateral cooperation efforts.

 

In conclusion, this inaugural high-level meeting between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan could serve as a foundation for future steps aimed at gradually integrating Afghanistan into regional cooperation frameworks. By connecting Afghanistan to trade and transit corridors and attracting investment flows, such efforts may contribute to the country’s internal stabilization. In this context, Uzbekistan’s foreign policy toward Afghanistan can be seen as a clear example of pragmatic diplomacy focused on tangible and constructive outcomes.

 

* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.