Uzbekistan has long been demonstrating a calculated and strategic pragmatism dealing effectively with its foreign policy towards the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan. What might appear as mere diplomatic exchanges on the surface is, in fact, part of a broader and more sophisticated approach by Uzbekistan to secure its national interests in a volatile region. The high-level visits by Uzbek officials, including Minister of Investment, Industry, and Trade Laziz Qudratov and Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, reflect this nuanced strategy. These visits, along with other economic engagements, are seemingly emblematic of Uzbekistan’s pragmatic foreign policy, which prioritizes economic leverage over formal diplomatic ties due to the current situation around Afghanistan.
The July 3rd business forum held in Tashkent, which brought Afghan entrepreneurs to the negotiating table, was not an isolated event but part of a series of deliberate moves by Uzbekistan to deepen economic ties with Afghanistan. This forum, followed by high-level visits, including the October 2023 visit by Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister to Kabul, underscores the importance Uzbekistan places on economic convergence with its neighbour. During the October visit, both parties agreed to increase bilateral trade to $3 billion, a significant commitment that illustrates the depth of economic engagement between the two countries.
Apparently though, these engagements might not just only be about trade; they seem to serve as a means for Uzbekistan to establish a form of an economic leverage over the Taliban government to ensure that the latter could not weaponize water issue between two countries. Given the geopolitical uncertainty in the region and the unrecognized status of the Taliban government, Uzbekistan is crafting a foreign policy that allows it to protect its interests without the need for a formal diplomatic recognition. This strategy reflects a careful balancing act, where the economic relations are used as a credible means to influence and potentially control the outcomes in bilateral relations.
In some perspective, Uzbekistan’s increasing focus on economic ties with Afghanistan is rooted in several strategic considerations. One of the most pressing issues for Uzbekistan is water security. The country’s agricultural sector, which is vital for its economy, depends heavily on Amu Darya’s water resources that in part originate in Afghanistan. With the Taliban now in control, Uzbekistan faces the risk of potential blackmail or manipulation over water rights, a scenario that could have devastating consequences for its agricultural output and, by extension, its food security.
By fostering strong economic ties, Uzbekistan, to some extent, aims to create a form of co-dependency that could deter the Taliban from using water as a bargaining chip. The promise of increased trade and economic collaboration offers Taliban certain incentives for maintaining stable and cooperative relationship with Uzbekistan. In this way, Uzbekistan is thought to be building a buffer against potential threats to its water security, ensuring that any attempt by the Taliban to leverage water resources could be met with a strong economic response, including the possibility of decoupling trade relations.
This approach is particularly pragmatic given the current geopolitical landscape. The Taliban government, though unrecognized by the international community, controls significant resources and territory. For Uzbekistan, engaging with the Taliban on economic terms allows it to navigate the complexities of the situation without compromising its own standing in the international arena. By focusing on trade rather than formal diplomatic ties, Uzbekistan could pursue its interests while maintaining flexibility in its foreign policy.
The visits by Uzbek officials to Kabul, including the recent high-profile visit by Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, are more than just diplomatic gestures. They are part of a broader strategy that emphasizes pragmatism over ideology. Uzbekistan recognizes the reality of the Taliban’s control over Afghanistan and the need to engage with them on practical terms. This approach reflects a departure from traditional diplomacy, where recognition and formal ties are often prerequisites for engagement. Instead, Uzbekistan is prioritizing its national interests using economic tools through building a set of influences ensuring stability in its relations with Afghanistan.
This pragmatism is also evident in Uzbekistan’s broader foreign policy. The country has been careful to balance its relationships with major powers, including Russia, China, and the United States, while also fostering regional cooperation in Central Asia. In its dealings with Afghanistan, Uzbekistan is applying the same principles, seeking to avoid entanglement in ideological conflicts while focusing on tangible benefits such as trade and security. This approach allows Uzbekistan to navigate the complexities of the region while maintaining its sovereignty and independence.
Apart from hedging against some potential challenges Taliban might create, by establishing a strong economic relationship with Afghanistan, Uzbekistan could position itself as a key player in the region, capable of influencing outcomes and ensuring its own security. The potential for increased trade and economic collaboration could also bring substantial benefits to Uzbekistan’s economy, particularly in sectors such as agriculture and energy.
Conclusion
Uzbekistan’s foreign policy towards Afghanistan under the Taliban is a carefully crafted strategy that prioritizes economic convergence over a formal diplomatic tie. By focusing on trade and economic collaboration, Uzbekistan is potentially building some leverages that could protect its interests in the face of possible challenges, particularly concerning water security. This pragmatic approach reflects a broader shift in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy, where national interests take precedence over ideology. As Uzbekistan continues to navigate the complexities of its relationship with Afghanistan, its strategy of economic engagement could prove to be a powerful tool in ensuring stability and security in the region.
