By Dovud Usmonov, undergraduate student at UWED, intern at IAIS
Introduction. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, achieved an unprecedented victory in the snap elections to Japan’s House of Representatives, marking the party’s largest electoral success since its establishment in 1955. The expanded institutional mandate enables the ruling party to advance its policy agenda despite the evident weakness of the opposition.
The victory is largely associated with high levels of public trust in Takaichi’s leadership and an effective mobilization campaign. At the same time, the foreign policy orientation of the Takaichi cabinet, which is focused on technological sovereignty and enhanced national security, creates conditions for a more active Japanese presence across Eurasia, including Central Asia. For the region, this may translate into expanded investment, energy, and technological cooperation. In particular, Uzbekistan may gain new opportunities to deepen engagement in nuclear and renewable energy, digital transformation, and infrastructure modernization.
Election Results. The election results demonstrate strong public backing for the Prime Minister while underscoring the diminished political influence of the opposition, which now has limited capacity to shape legislative outcomes. Given the institutional primacy of the House of Representatives within Japan’s legislative system, the ruling party is now positioned to advance legislation with minimal parliamentary resistance. Control over key parliamentary committees further expands the government’s ability to implement its fiscal, technological, and defense priorities.
The LDP won 316 of the 465 seats in the lower chamber, securing a two-thirds supermajority – a dramatic increase from its pre-election total of 198 seats. The scale of victory proved so overwhelming that the party effectively allowed opposition candidates to retain a limited parliamentary presence. The main opposition force secured only 49 seats, compared to 167 previously.
Particularly notable was the LDP’s performance in the Greater Tokyo metropolitan area, home to more than a quarter of Japan’s population. The opposition succeeded in electing only one representative there, enabling the ruling party to consolidate dominance not only in regional constituencies but also within Japan’s most economically dynamic and politically influential electorate.
On 9 February, Takaichi reaffirmed her intention to accelerate preparations for a national referendum on constitutional revision. She also announced plans to introduce legislation by summer eliminating the consumption tax on food products — a politically popular measure that nevertheless carries significant fiscal implications.
Takaichi’s Fiscal Policy. The Takaichi administration promotes what it describes a ”responsible and proactive fiscal policy,” framing public spending as a tool to stimulate economic growth while reinforcing long-term fiscal resilience. Financial markets, however, responded cautiously: long-term interest rates rose and the yen weakened, signalling investor uncertainty regarding Japan’s fiscal outlook.
The principal concern relates to the proposed two-year suspension of the consumption tax on food products, estimated to cost approximately ¥5 trillion annually. Questions remain over how lost revenues will be offset without expanding deficit financing, as well as whether reinstating the tax after the proposed period will be politically feasible.
At the same time, the LDP has announced large-scale strategic investments across 17 priority sectors, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, space technologies, and shipbuilding. The government expects accelerated economic growth to generate higher tax revenues and improve fiscal sustainability. Nevertheless, uncertainty persists regarding projected returns on these investments, mechanisms for evaluating effectiveness, and the government’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline alongside expanded spending commitments. Political timing constraints further complicate adoption of a full annual budget, increasing reliance on interim fiscal arrangements.
Defense Policy. Japan’s political trajectory increasingly reflects the strengthening of its military component, including approval of a record defense budget for 2026 amounting to ¥9 trillion (approximately $58 billion), which is 9.4% increase, compared to 2025. This indicates that a growing share of Tokyo’s political attention and state resources will be directed toward domestic and regional security priorities, particularly in East Asia.
To enhance coastal defense capabilities, Japan plans to allocate approximately ¥100 billion for the deployment of integrated aerial, maritime, and underwater unmanned systems.
Japan’s transition toward a record defense budget, military modernization, and reinforced alliance architecture with the United States objectively narrows the scope for Japan’s traditional model of external economic engagement, historically centered on investment projects, infrastructure development, and soft-power instruments.
Implications for Central Asia and Uzbekistan. The political course pursued by the Takaichi administration, emphasizing technological sovereignty and national security, implies a gradual expansion of Japanese engagement across Eurasia. Within this framework, the “Central Asia + Japan” format acquires renewed strategic relevance as an instrument for diversifying Tokyo’s economic and geopolitical partnerships. Central Asia is increasingly viewed as a space for developing resilient logistics and energy corridors and reducing dependence on individual external centers of power.
For Uzbekistan, Japan’s current political dynamics open opportunities for deeper cooperation in nuclear and renewable energy, the adoption of Japanese technologies in digitalization and crisis management, and participation in initiatives aimed at diversifying transport and logistics routes. Provided Japan maintains fiscal stability, cooperation may evolve from project-based engagement toward a more institutionalized long-term strategic partnership.
At the same time, Japanese engagement in Central Asia may increasingly acquire not only an economic but also a strategic dimension. Japanese initiatives may be interpreted as elements of a broader geopolitical logic aimed at supply-chain diversification and reduced dependence on China. Consequently, regional projects may increasingly be viewed through the prism of major-power competition, even where Central Asian states themselves seek to avoid politicization.
Overall, the window of opportunity for deepening Central Asia–Japan cooperation will depend directly on the sustainability of Japan’s domestic policy course and macro-financial stability.
Summary. The consolidation of Sanae Takaichi’s political position following the 8 February 2026 elections reflects not merely personal political success but rather the structural consolidation of the Liberal Democratic Party amid internal party transformation, heightened external tensions, and opposition weakness. This political configuration facilitates the pursuit of an innovation-oriented domestic agenda, as demonstrated by the government’s determination to hold a constitutional referendum.
The acquisition of a qualified parliamentary majority grants the government an expanded political mandate and institutional capacity to implement an active fiscal and defense agenda. Nevertheless, the long-term sustainability of this course will depend on the cabinet’s ability to balance reform momentum with macro-financial discipline and sustained public trust.
Japan’s evolving defense priorities simultaneously enhance Central Asia’s strategic importance for Tokyo while complicating the broader cooperation environment. For Uzbekistan, this necessitates further institutionalization of economic partnership with Japan while preserving balanced multi-vector foreign policy principles and avoiding external geopolitical polarization.
Forecasts. First, the LDP’s victory creates an institutional window of at least 2–3 years, during which the Takaichi government will enjoy expanded freedom in pursuing economic and defense policies.
Second, the growing China factor and persistent uncertainty surrounding Taiwan virtually guarantee continued increases in Japan’s defense spending and reinforcement of strategic deterrence policies. Japan is likely to invest in measures aimed at mitigating external trade pressure.
Third, such a decisive electoral outcome likely represents the peak of the current political cycle. By the 2028 elections, public support may face constraints linked to fiscal burdens, socio-economic expectations, and potential opposition consolidation. However, should the two-year consumption tax suspension be extended beyond its initial timeframe, public confidence may remain moderately high, allowing the LDP under Takaichi to expect similarly favorable, or even stronger electoral outcomes in future elections.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
