This policy brief examines the contemporary evolution of Iran–Afghanistan relations in the context of shifting regional security dynamics, economic interdependence, and geopolitical realignment following the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. It argues that the relationship between Tehran and Kabul is neither purely adversarial nor genuinely strategic, but rather defined by a complex mixture of pragmatic cooperation, mutual suspicion, and competing security imperatives. While Iran views Afghanistan as a crucial buffer on its eastern frontier, it also perceives the country as a potential source of instability, terrorism, sectarian tension, migration pressure, and foreign military penetration.
The brief traces the historical foundations of Iran’s Afghanistan policy, beginning with Tehran’s engagement with Afghan political and armed factions after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and continuing through its later tactical contacts with elements of the Taliban. It highlights the fact that Iran’s relations with the Taliban have remained fundamentally pragmatic rather than ideological, shaped above all by Tehran’s desire to limit American influence, prevent Afghanistan from becoming a platform for operations against Iran, and preserve influence among Afghan Shiite communities, particularly the Hazaras. At the same time, the Taliban’s insistence on strategic autonomy has repeatedly limited Iran’s ability to transform tactical cooperation into durable political control.
Particular attention is given to the security, migration, and humanitarian dimensions of the bilateral relationship. Iran remains deeply concerned about the activities of ISKP, anti-Shiite militant networks, cross-border criminal groups, narcotics trafficking, and the possible return of American military infrastructure to Afghanistan. These concerns have been intensified by refugee flows and Iran’s growing deportation campaign against undocumented Afghans, which has placed additional pressure on Afghanistan’s already fragile economy and social infrastructure. The brief shows that migration has become not only a humanitarian issue, but also a major security and political factor shaping Tehran’s approach towards Kabul.
Despite these tensions, economic interdependence continues to function as an important stabilising element in Iran–Afghanistan relations. Afghanistan remains heavily dependent on Iranian fuel, food products, construction materials, and transit infrastructure, while Iran views Afghanistan as a valuable export market amid continued Western sanctions. The policy brief therefore concludes that the future of the Iran–Afghanistan relationship will be determined by the balance between security mistrust and practical cooperation. As regional actors such as China, Russia, Pakistan, and Central Asian states increase their engagement with Afghanistan, Tehran and Kabul will likely remain bound by necessity, even as distrust, border insecurity, migration pressures, and wider Middle Eastern instability continue to constrain deeper rapprochement.
Read on Topchubashov Center’s web-site
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
