In her commentary, Nargiza Umarova emphasizes the growing multidirectionality and uncertainty in Uzbekistan’s strategy for the development of trans-Afghan transport corridors. Noting the intensification of work on the feasibility study of two routes – Kabul and Kandahar – she emphasizes that Russia’s participation in the project may change the balance of previous agreements, especially with such partners as the UAE and Qatar. The expert points out that the previously prioritized Kabul route is now facing competition from the alternative Kandahar corridor, which is also being actively promoted by Turkmenistan and potentially integrated into Iranian infrastructure projects.

 

The Kandahar route is seen as a profitable alternative to connect Central Asia not only to Pakistan, but also to Iran and, more broadly, to India through the port of Chabahar. Ms. Umarova emphasizes that geopolitical reality – instability in Pakistan, complications in Afghan-Pakistani relations, as well as Moscow’s ambitions to expand the North-South ITC – may induce Tashkent to reconsider its transportation priorities. At the same time, as the expert emphasizes, the lack of transparency in the financing of the new project and the Uzbek side's silence on its further steps create an atmosphere of uncertainty in which every diplomatic move acquires strategic significance.

 

Read the English version on The Diplomat

 

* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.