In her policy brief for The Jamestown Foundation, Nargiza Umarova examines the growing significance of the Lapis Lazuli Corridor as an alternative transit route linking Afghanistan with Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Türkiye, and onward to European markets. The brief places particular emphasis on the corridor’s renewed relevance amid military escalation in the Middle East and deepening tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, arguing that the route offers Kabul a strategically important means of diversifying external trade channels and reducing dependence on more vulnerable transit directions. At the same time, the author highlights that the corridor is increasingly viewed not only as a logistical solution, but also as an instrument capable of reshaping broader patterns of regional connectivity.
A central argument of the brief is that further development of the corridor, especially its possible extension toward Pakistan, could substantially expand the geopolitical role of Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and several Central Asian states by integrating them more deeply into trade flows between South Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe. However, the analysis also underscores that such changes may alter the balance of transit significance within Central Asia itself, potentially weakening the current positions of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan on north–south and intercontinental routes. In this sense, the brief goes beyond transport issues alone and offers a broader assessment of how emerging infrastructure projects are becoming part of a wider contest over regional influence, connectivity, and strategic relevance.
The policy brief is especially valuable for showing that transport corridors in and around Afghanistan should be understood not simply as technical infrastructure initiatives, but as geopolitical projects with direct implications for trade geography, regional competition, and the future architecture of Eurasian connectivity. By linking the Lapis Lazuli Corridor to parallel railway and logistics initiatives, Umarova demonstrates that the struggle for control over routes is simultaneously becoming a struggle over the redistribution of economic opportunity and political weight across a rapidly changing macro-region.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
