The escalation of the situation in the Middle East poses an increased risk to Uzbekistan's ability to deliver goods to promising export markets, including Europe and South Asia, via effective routes.
A month ago, the Uzbek Ministry of Transport proposed alternative transport routes to bypass problematic countries. These included routes through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, given that all three countries are currently experiencing active military conflict, the feasibility of transporting cargo through their territories is limited. This places Central Asian countries, which already face high transport costs in foreign trade due to their geographical distance from open seas, in an extremely difficult position.
During the 12-day Iran-Israel war in the summer of 2025, Uzbekistan was forced to seek urgent alternatives to Iran’s southern ports, leading to a 30 per cent increase in logistics costs. The country is likely to incur even greater losses in the current situation due to the temporary need to deviate from both the Iranian and the Afghan-Pakistani transit, which would give it access to the Indian Ocean.
In 2025, a total of 1.2 million tons of cargo was transported by Uzbekistan through Iran. Deliveries were made to Türkiye and Western countries. Meanwhile, Iranian ports handled over 330,000 tons of domestic cargo.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely restricts the movement of merchant ships, particularly oil tankers, along this important global transport and energy artery. Marine insurance within the Strait has not only become extremely expensive, but also difficult to obtain, leading to an 80% decline in transit shipping. All of this has a negative impact on the port of Bandar Abbas, the region's largest transport hub, which is located on the Iranian coast of the Persian Gulf. As a preventive measure, Iran's northern ports of Caspian and Anzali have ceased operations. Meanwhile, land trade routes remain active, including those crossing the Iranian-Turkmen border via the Sarakhs crossing. Iran also maintains transport links with Afghanistan via the Khaf-Herat railway line. Recently, the Afghan side announced that freight trains were running smoothly between the two cities.
Due to security threats to its southern flank, Uzbekistan has been forced to redirect cargo flows to longer and more complex routes. One option could be to use a combination of transport via the Strait of Gibraltar, the Mediterranean Sea, the Aegean Sea, the Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea, followed by railways in Russia and Kazakhstan. Another alternative option is the transport corridor Uzbekistan (Andijan)-Kyrgyzstan (Osh, Irkeshtam)-China (Kashgar, Urumqi)/Pacific ports of China. The Northern Railway Corridor to the EU also remains relevant.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
