Last week, gold prices reached a historic high of USD 3,500 per ounce (31.1 grams). The growth of the cost of this resource on the world market is traditionally perceived as a positive factor, as it contributes to the strengthening of government reserves, increase in export revenues and other macroeconomic benefits. However, as the experience of several countries shows, raw material prosperity in the long term can turn into a factor that hinders economic development.
According to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the country’s gold reserves are estimated at 11.5 million troy ounces at the beginning of 2025. Uzbekistan is among the world’s leading gold producers: by the end of 2024, its annual production was about 105 tons, which ensures its place in the top ten of the global ranking.
It should be noted that Uzbekistan realizes both the potential benefits and risks associated with the current market environment. On the one hand, high gold prices provide the country’s economy with a significant fiscal and export bonus. On the other hand, the key issue is not the fact of rising prices, but how effectively the additional export revenues will be distributed.
Uzbekistan is currently taking measures aimed at rational use of the favorable market situation. A significant part of the raw material surplus is being channeled into long-term projects, including the development of education, health care and the technological sector. In parallel, investments are being made in non-resource sectors such as textiles, agro-processing, logistics and IT, which contribute to the creation of added value and new jobs.
Special attention is paid to social initiatives, including the Youth Notebook and Women's Notebook programs, which are digital platforms for targeted support of relevant categories of the population. The implementation of such projects not only contributes to social stability, but also reduces migration pressure, reducing the outflow of population to large cities and abroad.
Thus, the current rise in gold prices creates additional opportunities for Uzbekistan for economic transformation. The critical question remains whether it will be possible to avoid the “resource curse” that characterizes many commodity-based economies. Uzbekistan is demonstrating a desire not only to maximize revenues from gold mining, but also to diversify the economy through investments in human capital and innovative industries. Only time will tell how successful this strategy will be.
* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.
