Center for Anthropology And Conflictology

Center for Anthropology And Conflictology

We offer evidence-based research and consultations on topics related to the analysis of the influence of anthropological factors on certain areas of state and public construction, as well as identifying the level of conflict potential of both countries and individual regions of Central Asia. The information obtained as part of the research will form a sound empirical basis for a deep, comprehensive and independent analysis to assess the risks of large projects, take into account in the conduct of effective policies by state and non-state structures, the implementation of grants, educational programs and training.

The Laboratory of Anthropology and Conflictology (hereinafter referred to as the "Laboratory") is a research unit of the Institute for Advanced International Studies at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The main goal is the preparation of relevant information-analytical, forecast documents and recommendations for the study of topical problems of anthropology and conflictology in Uzbekistan and certain regions of the world, the implementation of educational programs, the development of scientific publications and other publications.

The laboratory is staffed by a close-knit team of Uzbek scientists with rich experience in both public and private educational, research and international organizations. This allows for research on an interdisciplinary basis.

The team consists of recognized scientists in the field of anthropology, sociology, international relations and political science, which is confirmed by the relevant diplomas and certificates. The staff of the Laboratory has experience in preparing and conducting field research both in all regions of Uzbekistan and in Central Asia.

The laboratory has both its own empirical base of research and access to statistical, demographic, socio-economic and other information from various structures. All this together makes it possible, based on the goals and objectives set, to develop information and analytical materials, and on their basis to prepare strategic ideas and propose solutions to identified problems in a whole range of political and socio-demographic areas. That is, the Laboratory has the necessary scientific and expert advisory potential for scientific cooperation with stakeholders.

At the same time, the following topical issues can be considered in the context of the theory and practice of anthropology and conflictology:

- international relations in Central Asia;

- regional studies and country studies;

- anthropological specifics of a particular country of Central Asia or a region of Uzbekistan;

- ethnic and cultural diversity of the regions of Uzbekistan and the countries of Central Asia;

- interconnectedness of religious and ethnic identity in the mentality of the peoples of Uzbekistan and Central Asia;

- the influence of informal structures on the society of Uzbekistan and the countries of Central Asia;

- formation of an anthropological portrait of the national elites of the countries of Central Asia;

- the dynamics of changes in the conflict intensity of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan, with an emphasis on border areas.

The main methods of the Laboratory are conducting sociological questionnaires, focus group discussions, expert surveys, in-depth interviews and other activities aimed at collecting empirical material for research.

Head of Center

Director

Azamat Seitov

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Mr. Azamat Seitov (Uzbekistan), 46 years old, Head of the Laboratory of Anthropology and Conflictology at the Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) of the University of World Economy and Diplomacy, which studies: on an interdisciplinary basis, topical issues of international relations, regional studies and country studies in the context of the theory and practice of anthropology and conflictology; anthropological specifics of the level of conflict in the countries of Central Asia, with an emphasis on border areas; and also establishes long-term cooperation for the implementation of joint projects (programs) with leading foreign research organizations. 

Experts

leader

Yida Jiao

Visiting Research Fellow

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Luca Anceschi

Associate Research Fellow

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Sherzod Abdullaev

Director of the IAIS

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Rustam Makhmudov

Leading Researcher at the Laboratory of Anthropology and Conflictology

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Azamat Seitov

Head of the Laboratory of Anthropology and Conflictology

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Outputs

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Reports

09 October, 2024

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan at a new historical stage of bilateral relations

The report by Dr. Azamat Seitov, Head of the Laboratory of Anthropology and Conflict Studies, reveals the current trends of cooperation between the two states based on the historical achievements and strategic vision of the leaders of these countries – Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Emomali Rakhmon. The paper was presented at an international roundtable on political cooperation in the context of Central Asian integration held in September 2024.

 

The author focuses on strengthening political, economic, cultural and humanitarian cooperation between the countries. It is noted that since 2016, bilateral relations have been developing with dynamic growth, which was the result of personal initiatives of the leaders and strategic approach to the issues of regional integration and stability.

 

Dr. Seitov highlights the key aspects of cooperation:

  • Political will and strategic cooperation within the framework of international organizations such as CIS and SCO.
  • Significant enhancement of economic ties, as evidenced by the growth of bilateral trade turnover, increasing from $197 million in 2016 to $757 million by 2024, as well as the implementation of major joint investment projects such as the construction of hydroelectric power plants and industrial zones.
  • Joint efforts to develop transportation and communications infrastructure, which has allowed for the integration of railroads and roads, as well as increased freight traffic.
  • High level of cultural interaction, including the preservation of national identity through educational programs, cultural exchanges and events that strengthen friendship ties.

 

The report emphasizes the important role of trusting relations between the two countries in ensuring regional security, stability and sustainable development. Seitov predicts further strengthening of relations, which will be an important contribution to the stability and prosperity of the entire Central Asian region.

 

Read and download the report (in Russian)

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Media Appearances

16 September, 2024

Strengthening Bonds: Shared Values and Sports Diplomacy Between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan

Dr Azamat Seitov, Head of the IAIS Centre for Anthropology and Conflict Studies, shared his reflections on the centuries-old values of Kyrgyz-Uzbek friendship in a recent interview with the Kyrgyz national news agency “Kabar”. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov’s gift of a car to Uzbek coach Akmal Khasanov provoked a positive response in Uzbekistan and Central Asia. The expert noted the symbolism of the gesture, emphasising the importance of the car as the modern equivalent of a horse in Turkic culture. He also recalled a similar gesture by the President of Uzbekistan towards a Kyrgyz akyn, which was warmly received in Kyrgyzstan.

 

Dr Seitov stressed the importance of sports diplomacy in strengthening relations between the two countries. He noted the success of Kyrgyz boxer Munarbek Seyitbek uulu at the Paris Olympics and the role of the Uzbek coach in his victory. The expert also drew attention to the development of sports in Kyrgyzstan, particularly football, and noted that the country is showing better and better results in international competitions.

 

Summarising the interview, it was noted by the expert that sport plays an important role in people-to-people diplomacy, helping to strengthen friendly relations between countries. Events such as joint training, exchange of experience and mutual support in sports help to create strong ties between the peoples of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, demonstrating unity and mutual understanding in the international arena.

 

Read the full interview (in Rusiian)

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Research Articles

10 September, 2024

Approaches of the Central Asian countries, the EU and leading external and regional players to Afghanistan after the Taliban came to power

The monograph “Central Asia and European Union: In Search of Sustainability”, which was prepared and published as part of the scientific project of the UWED Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence for European Studies, offers a detailed exploration of the intricate and evolving relationship between the European Union and the Central Asian republics covering a wide spectrum of topics, from regionalism, economic cooperation, and environmental challenges to the EU’s strategy towards Central Asia and its role in fostering regional resilience. It is an invaluable resource for researchers, policymakers, and students aiming to deepen their understanding of contemporary international relations and sustainable development across these regions.

 

The monograph features an essential contribution by Rustam Makhmudov, a Leading Research Fellow at the Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS), who investigates the responses of Central Asian countries and the European Union to the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan. Mr. Makhmudov offers a nuanced analysis of the evolving diplomatic and security strategies, examining how regional and external players—such as the EU, the US, China, and Russia—are adjusting their approaches. His article highlights the geopolitical challenges posed by the Taliban’s return, especially concerning security, trade, and humanitarian concerns, making it a critical read for those interested in Central Asian geopolitics and international diplomacy post-2021.

 

Read and download the article below

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Policy Briefs

13 March, 2023

Exclusive: China has become an important driver of progress on the planet - Uzbek expert A. Seitov

TASHKENT, March 2 (Xinhua) -- At present, China has become an important driver of progress on the planet. This was stated in an exclusive interview with Xinhua by the head of the laboratory of anthropology and conflictology of the Institute for Advanced International Studies of the University of World Economy and Diplomacy of Uzbekistan Azamat Seitov.

According to him, China is one of the oldest civilizations in the world, which throughout the history of its development has demonstrated the inner strength to achieve its goals. Xinhua's interlocutor believes that China is now comprehensively implementing the decisions of the 20th National Congress of the CPC. In foreign policy, this means the implementation of Beijing's strategy of openness in the spirit of mutual benefit and gain in the long term. Large-scale Chinese modernization, in turn, will serve as an additional opportunity for the developing countries of the world, opening up new horizons for cooperation.

A. Seitov, using the example of the countries of Central Asia, noted that over the past 30 jubilee years, the relations of the parties have reached the level of strategic partnership. The fundamental principle of interaction between the states of Central Asia and China is respect for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries, as well as support in matters relating to vital interests.

The Uzbek scientist emphasized that this year marks the tenth anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative, which in such a short period has opened a wide road for economic progress in many countries of the world. "Uzbekistan considers this initiative of Beijing as a mechanism for strengthening interstate cooperation through the development of land and sea routes, which is turning into a global economic platform before our eyes," A. Seitov said.

In conclusion, the Uzbek scientist stressed that the Uzbek-Chinese cooperation is of a comprehensive strategic nature and covers a variety of areas. "It is based on trusting personal relations established between the heads of the two states. For its part, Uzbekistan attaches priority to further strengthening partnership with China, expanding multifaceted trade, economic, investment and financial cooperation between the two countries based on the principles of mutual benefit, taking into account the interests and equality," summed up A. Seitov. 

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Policy Briefs

27 February, 2023

Organization of Turkic states as an example of the formation of new global landscapes

The organization of Turkic states is becoming a promising mechanism for building new regional and global landscapes to stimulate the growth of mutual prosperity, strengthening peace and stability. About the prospects for the development of the organization - in the article of Associate Professor of the University of World Economy and Diplomacy Rustam Makhmudov.

On November 11, 2022, Samarkand will host the first summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTG), whose members are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and Uzbekistan, while Hungary and Turkmenistan have observer status.

The fact that the first summit will take place in Samarkand is not an accident. It should be noted that one of the turning points in the activities of this organization was precisely the entry of Uzbekistan in 2019 into the then Turkic Council, which later transformed into the UTC.

The significance of Uzbekistan's entry for the organization was determined by a number of factors. In terms of demographics, our country with a population of more than 35 million people is the second in the UTC after Turkey with its 83.3 million inhabitants. In terms of GDP, it forms the leading economic trio of the countries of the organization, together with Turkey and Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan has a systemic influence on all key geopolitical processes in Central Eurasia.

Our country also acts as a powerful cultural center of the modern world Turkic civilization due to the presence of a high educational and scientific base. The implemented policy of openness in recent years makes Uzbekistan a center of regional attraction and at the same time a generator of creative ideas that are of strategic importance not only for Central Asia, but for other adjacent spaces. It is impossible to deny the fact that the new course of Uzbekistan has led to the launch of the processes of reconsolidation of the region, in which the majority of the population are representatives of the Turkic peoples.

The entry of Uzbekistan into the UTC has led to the fact that today, when assessing the development and forecasting the situation in the vast expanses of Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Asia Minor, it is no longer possible not to take into account the factor of cooperation between the Turkic countries. This, in turn, introduces additional elements into the increasingly complex geopolitical, geo-economic, value and cultural picture of the region.

It is noteworthy that the strengthening of the Turkic dimension in the region occurs simultaneously with the search for new meanings and incentives for the development of other institutional and organizational dimensions, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the CIS, the Consultative Meetings of the Heads of State of Central Asia, the processes of strengthening the interconnectedness of Central and South Asia, formats " CA+” with the US, EU, Russia and China.

And in this regard, of course, the question cannot but arise as to whether the strengthening Turkic dimension will enter into a targeted, organizational and functional contradiction with so many other organizations in which UTC members are represented - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and an observer state Turkmenistan.

To answer this question, it seems important to take into account two closely related aspects that relate to the nature of the development of the current geopolitical situation in the world and the conceptual understanding of the mechanisms for building multilateral relations.

It is obvious that the unipolar geopolitical structure of the world and the systems of globalization institutions generated by it, which previously guaranteed stability and maximization of wealth, in the language of the new institutional economy, are gradually becoming a thing of the past. The need to form new institutional systems has been discussed for quite a long time, including in the United States itself, as the ideological, financial, economic and technological center of globalization.

It is worth recalling the speech of the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2012 at the Singapore Management University, concerning the concept of the "New Silk Road". At the time, she stated, “We must follow the example of the generation that, after World War II, built the modern world order and created institutions and agreements that fostered unprecedented security and prosperity. We must follow the same path, looking even further and working even harder to forge agreements that will ensure our security and prosperity for the next 100 years.”[1]One can also recall President Donald Trump, the essence of whose foreign policy could be described as an attempt to change the previous rules of the global trade, economic and technological game.

The current increase in the number of conflicts and points of tension in world politics, economics and ideology can be interpreted, in this regard, not only as an indicator of the exhaustion of the old institutions, but also as an attempt to build new global rules and balances between financial, economic and technological forces.

At the same time, the problem is that in significant segments of the developing world, this process is viewed from the point of view traditional for the 19th and 20th centuries. Its essence lies in the expectation that new institutions, as before, will be exclusively formed by the leading world powers. However, this point of view does not fully correspond to the realities of the modern world.

The new rules of the game that will shape the future global landscape will be shaped by more complex combinations of efforts between developed and developing countries. And they are already being formed, as indicated by the policy of Uzbekistan, as well as such an important UTC member state as Turkey, demonstrating a bright proactive position in building new multilateral formats in combination with developed and developing countries, without waiting for the largest actors to agree on new rules of the game.

As for the question of the possible entry of the dimension of Turkic cooperation into conflict with other organizations and formats in which Uzbekistan and its UTC partners work, it is important to understand the ongoing changes in the models for building multilateral cooperation in modern conditions.

If in the previous bipolar and unipolar models of the world, multilateral relations were built according to the “center-periphery” scheme, when the great powers were in the center, and other countries concentrated around them, then now there is a space of multiple centers and situational leaders represented by countries and organizations. All of them form branched connections, relations and formats of cooperation. This is a highly dynamic model, moving away from the statics of past eras, creating the so-called. "synergistic effect".

The leading countries of the Organization of Turkic States, including Uzbekistan, largely demonstrate exactly this logic in their foreign policy, which gives grounds to talk about minimizing the likelihood of the UTC entering into conflict with other organizations and formats that the Turkic states are members of. Moreover, the UTC can increase the effectiveness of other multilateral formats with the participation of the Turkic countries, as it creates another source of economic, scientific and technological growth in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Thus, the Organization of Turkic States should become a promising mechanism for building new regional and global landscapes with their new institutions and new understanding of the nature of relations between countries in order to stimulate the growth of mutual prosperity, peace and stability. It is important that Uzbekistan, as the chairman of the UTC in the period 2022-2023, has a unique opportunity to lay a long-term strategic foundation for the development of this organization, relying on its valuable experience of recent years in the formation of productive relations of a new type, both through interstate relations and cooperation between organizations and regions.

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Policy Briefs

27 February, 2023

The Great Game: Why Xi Sees an Opportunity in Central Asia

As Russian influence wanes Xi Jinping will make it a near-term priority to become the main partner of Central Asian countries.

The 20th National Congress did not go according to plan for Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The unexpected public ouster of former president Hu Jintao indicated the possibility of an intra-elite struggle among the top members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Premier Li Keqiang was known to be in agreement with Xi about the state’s long-term goals, namely, to build a moderately prosperous society (Xiaokang) by 2021 and turn China into a great modern socialist country by the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). However, their opinions did not coincide in the implementation of the main contours of economic policy. For example, Li disagreed with Xi regarding the “zero-COVID” policy as well as immense investments in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

China’s zero-Covid policies led to an economic slowdown and stirred up discontent among the masses. From 2014 to 2019, China invested $90 billion dollars in BRI countries. But given that low-income developing countries make up a significant share of BRI participants—more than 46 percent of the total number of participating countries—many of them are in debt to China. Moreover, due to Covid-19, almost all BRI countries experienced negative gross domestic product(GDP) growth and decreased their solvency, which doubled these countries’ debts to China. Of the sixty-eight BRI participants, twenty-three are at risk of defaulting on their obligations with Djibouti, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan at a particularly high risk of doing so.

Central Asia In Focus

Based on the composition of the Politburo Standing Committee, many experts noted that the new members are personally loyal to Xi, signaling his complete consolidation of power. This provides Xi with ample decision-making leeway concerning China’s future. As Alibaba founder Jack Ma said, “China is like a huge ship. In order to drastically shift its course, even if there is such a need, it takes considerable time and effort”.

It is often assumed that China’s policy towards Central Asia will not change much. However, taking into account the current economic crisis and structural changes within the international order, adjustments will likely be made by strengthening the BRI. The retention of Wang Huning, the chief ideologue of the CCP, as a Politburo member is a clear signal that Xi will intensify the promotion of the BRI in his third term. Considering that Central Asia is critical to BRI’s success, the project will be a determining factor in China’s policy in the region. Additionally, because the BRI was first unveiled ten years ago in Kazakhstan, there is a symbolic meaning for China to show the project’s achievements in Central Asia.

Until today, China has been careful not to push the BRI too strongly in the region. Beijing understands the difficulty of predicting Russia’s role in the region and, most importantly, the new trends in relations between the Central Asian countries and China itself. But this only testifies to Beijing’s intentions to gain a firm foothold in the region and supplants Moscow’s influence.

First, given the weakening of Russia’s role in Central Asia due to its ongoing war in Ukraine, China’s position in the region is strengthening. Thus, American experts believe that for many of Russia’s neighbors, the war in Ukraine has accelerated the process of breaking out of Moscow’s orbit. Currently, many Central Asian states are rethinking and revising their relations with Russia. Sharp speeches by Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in June and Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon at the October Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit addressed to Russia, as well as the evident desire of the countries of the region to resolve sensitive territorial issues bilaterally, vividly illustrates Central Asian states’ transition to independence.

Russia’s growing isolation provides China with an opportunity to challenge its influence in Central Asia. Moscow’s strategic dependency on Beijing amidst the war in Ukraine excludes the possibility of Russian retaliation for encroachment into its historic sphere of influence.

Second, in just this year, Xi met face-to-face three times and virtually once with other Central Asian leaders, indicating a new wave of high-intensity diplomacy. These meetings summarized thirty years of bilateral and multilateral relations while outlining prospects for future cooperation.

Thus, at the Virtual Summit of the leaders of Central Asia and the President of China in January 2022, Xi made a number of important proposals including increasing trade to $70 billion by 2030, deepening cooperation in the field of advanced technologies, and providing 1,200 government-sponsored scholarships.

Xi’s decision to make his first trip abroad since the outbreak of the pandemic to Central Asia is a fundamental strategic step to send an important signal to China’s competitors and partners in the region. Before the visit, the Chinese president published articles in which he outlined policy contours and guidelines for a new stage in the development of Central Asian-Chinese relations for the next decade.

An analysis of Xi’s September visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan testify to China’s interests in the region. A number of documents signed with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan expressed China’s strong political commitment to the region, with a new focus on cooperation between Chinese media regulators and their counterparts in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Earlier, Chinese experts expressed indignation that a negative perception of China still persists in the region despite huge investment contributions for Central Asian economic development. This was primarily attributed to low awareness and the lack of positive information about China. Media interactions between each side to fill this gap will become the main tool for Chinese soft power projection in the region.

Third, Xi explicitly identified the BRI as an important mechanism to realize Chinese interests in Central Asia. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan, Xi called for continuing efforts to complement BRI projects with national development strategies and regional cooperation initiatives, as well as to expand sub-multilateral and sub-regional cooperation.

The need for regional transportation and communications links is increasing in Central Asia. Beginning next year, Beijing will become actively involved in constructing critical transport infrastructure in the region. To this end, after more than twenty years, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China will revive the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway construction project. On the eve of the SCO summit, the relevant authorities of the three countries signed an agreement to implement this project with Chinese financing, no doubt placing it under “the framework of BRI.” This connectivity project aims to ensure Chinese access to Central Asian markets which is especially relevant when the war in Ukraine has impeded important routes leading to Europe.

China’s interest in the speedy implementation of the BRI is becoming a decisive factor in the implementation of the CKU railway. According to experts, the CKU railway will not only create the southern corridor of the Second Continental Transport Bridge but will also open up new markets for manufactured products from the three countries. This route will become one of the shortest for transporting Chinese goods to Europe and will also increase Beijing’s regional economic influence.

Finally, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, China will make more targeted investments rather than large-scale commitments. Xi’s visit to the region signals that China will invest more funds in the region but from now on, they will not be unconditional. China is determined to protect its economic interests in the region by linking them to certain political benchmarks. It is likely that initially, these conditions will be delicate but firmer demands for change will eventually be issued.

Conclusion

Due to the negative economic ramifications of the pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War, Central Asia has a general interest in accelerating the implementation of the BRI and other Chinese-financed projects. Still, while counting on large Chinese investments, participating countries should not hope for “generous conditions.” Countries can pay a high price for Chinese funding, including the “Sinicization” of their economies and cultures.

For Xi, the BRI will remain a top priority for regional engagement as China continues to be the main donor for developing countries. Some BRI countries, however, will learn from the experiences of Pakistan and Sri Lanka and become more cautious about accepting Chinese investments with political conditions. Thus, the BRI is gradually transforming from a regional infrastructure development plan into a security strategy for Central Asia.

Abbos Bobokhonov is a PhD student at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy, and Research Fellow at the Institute for Advanced International Studies. Previously, he was a Research Fellow at the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, where his main areas of expertise were China’s foreign policy and SCO. His research interests include contemporary Chinese foreign policy in Central Asia, China’s Soft Power policy, BRI and AIIB.

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Research Articles

14 February, 2023

Hypotheses of Lipset and Fukuyama and their verification on the example of Modern China

The article attempts to test the universality of the hypotheses of Francis Fukuyama and Seymour Martin Lipset about the positive correlation of wealth and consumer culture with liberalism and democracy on the example of some developing countries and modern China. The key component of the analysis is the middle class, which is traditionally considered an indicator of the economic state of society, the basis of consumer culture and the bearer of the values of economic liberalism. The problem of a qualitative transition of the middle class from confessing the values of economic liberalism to the values of political liberalism and to the requirements of their practical implementation in the form of democratization of society and the state is also analyzed. The article presents the results of a study of the middle class in the most successful developing countries, conducted by Pew Research Center in 2009, which generally confirm the hypothesis of the existence of a global middle class from a value point of view, regardless of whether it is a developed or developing country. At the same time, more recent studies do not yet confirm the successful transition from economic liberalism to political liberalism in these developing countries. In this regard, the key conceptual issue that will have to confirm or refute the hypotheses of Lipset and Fukuyama is the further fate of the development of the middle class in China, which has already become the largest in the world in terms of numbers, has a taste of consumption and economic liberalism. Considering that the Chinese middle class makes up more than 50% of the country's population, it remains a mystery why it has not yet made demands for the political transformation of the state and what reasons are holding back the transition of the strengthening economic liberalism in Chinese society to political liberalism, and whether this transition is possible at all.

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Policy Briefs

05 February, 2023

The value of the world, confirmed by numbers

Since ancient times, our people have been aware of the importance and value of a peaceful and prosperous life. The crowning achievement of this is the work of Alisher Navoi, who dedicated his humanistic work to the nation and all mankind. One of the main merits of the great poet is the chanting of universal human values, the promotion of goodness, benefactors, the call to all peoples to live in peace and harmony.

It is also indicative that from the inside of the dome of the monument to Alisher Navoi one can read his lines: "People of the world, know: enmity is not a matter, love each other, all truth is in friendship." They demonstrate the highest goals of New Uzbekistan, consonant with the good ideas of the great poet. For example, in the Message of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to the Oliy Majlis and the people of Uzbekistan, it is noted that we must cherish our peaceful and calm life as an invaluable, highest asset, protect it for the sake of happiness and the future of our families, children and future generations.

Peace is a key condition for the confident movement of our country forward. This is especially important against the backdrop of the events taking place in the international community: the difficult geopolitical situation, the aggravating shortage of energy resources, and the growing need for food.

It is in the conditions of peace that our country has achieved impressive results, namely: as a result of large-scale and effective reforms, the country's gross domestic product for the first time exceeded 80 billion dollars; in 2022 alone, eight billion dollars of foreign direct investment was attracted to the economy of Uzbekistan; the country's exports reached $19 billion

Obviously, all these indicators are possible only in conditions of stability. Thus, a comparative analysis of most foreign military conflicts (interstate and civil) in the period from 1990 to 2016 indicates an obvious decrease in GDP per capita (the figure reaches 64.3 percent) after the end of the conflict.

According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, by mid-2022, more than 100 million people were forced to move to another place of residence due to persecution, conflict, unrest, and human rights violations. This figure is 15 percent higher than the result of the end of 2021. In other words, last year one in 77 people in the world was forced to leave their place of permanent residence, which is twice as many as a decade ago (one in 167 in 2012).

According to research, out of the last 3,400 years of human history, 268 years (eight percent) were peaceful. Only in the last century, 108 million people died from wars. These negative processes do not subside even in our time.

Conflicts also affect both domestic and foreign investors. Depending on the intensity of the clashes, they withdraw capital far abroad or transfer production facilities to other nearby regions.

Domestic investments are most sensitive to armed conflicts, which in turn have a negative impact immediately on both financial and real investments. This is due to the fact that the stock markets and securities in the country of conflict instantly react to it, and investment in capital construction is suspended due to high risks, especially if objects are located in a war zone. At the same time, investors refrain from investing in the development of production due to uncertainty about the future.

As a result, mass unemployment and horrendous inflation. In particular, within the framework of the relevant armed conflicts in Sierra Leone, the devaluation of the national currency in the first year alone amounted to 92.8 percent, in Algeria - 92.3, Serbia - 83.7, Rwanda - 76.9, Burundi - 77.6, Yemen - 70.

The devaluation effect of the armed conflict is due to a complex of reasons. This is the destruction of infrastructure, the reduction in exports and foreign direct investment, the outflow of capital, including banking, the deficit in the foreign exchange market, trade blockades, the rupture of trade and economic ties, and more.

The resettlement of the masses occurs as a result of both military operations and the destruction of social infrastructure, job cuts, and the destruction of businesses. In conditions of forced migration, the self-reproduction of households stops, which turns into poverty, leading to poverty. Thus, the effect of a cyclical increase in the conflict content of society arises, that is, poverty contributes to the emergence of new conflicts.

On the one hand, poverty is a motivation for many people to actively participate in hostilities and use armed conflict as a means of earning money. On the other hand, the destruction of infrastructure, casualties among the civilian population, which means the loss of a breadwinner, the emergence of refugees and the displacement of citizens within the country, together turn into an increase in poverty. Thus, there is a certain cyclicity in the impact of poverty on the occurrence of clashes and its increase as a result of conflict.

Therefore, it is important that, while maintaining a peaceful and calm life in the country, strengthening its independence, Uzbekistan continues the path of sustainable development at an accelerated pace. This is the main reason why the entire multinational people of the republic values ​​this priceless and highest asset.

However, Uzbekistan's desire for peace and stability does not mean that we are defenseless. As noted by the head of state in the Message: "We are able to ensure the security and territorial integrity of our beloved Motherland." With well-deserved respect and pride in our country, they treat the defenders of the Motherland, who reliably ensure the inviolability of borders and peaceful life. For example, in the ranking of the armies of the world Global Firepower Index 2023, Uzbekistan ranked 62nd among 145 countries.

The Address noted that in the context of ensuring peace in the country, the military-patriotic education of youth, the role of the older generation in raising children and young people, so that they grow up as harmoniously developed personalities, is of great importance.

In general, emphasis is placed on ensuring that the life of every person in our country is peaceful and happy, that he is healthy, gets a good education, and ensures the well-being of his family.

Azamat Seitov.
Head of the sector of the Executive Committee of the Political Council of UzLiDeP,
Doctor of sociological sciences.