In his article Dr. Islomkhon Gafarov analyses the persistent challenges the Taliban faces in securing international recognition, despite having controlled Afghanistan for over three years. The author states that internal divisions within the Taliban, particularly the power struggle between the Kandahari and Kabuli factions, have significantly weakened the regime’s political cohesion. He highlights the discord between Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada and Sirajuddin Haqqani as emblematic of the Taliban’s broader governance struggles, which in turn exacerbate global skepticism towards Afghanistan’s ruling authorities.   He further argues that the lack of recognition stems not only from internal fractures but also from the Taliban’s failure to establish an inclusive government that represents Afghanistan’s diverse ethnic and political groups. The author notes that while the Taliban claims to have built a broad-based administration, Pashtun dominance remains a defining characteristic of its leadership, further alienating both domestic minorities and key international actors, particularly the United States and European Union. Additionally, he contends that the Taliban’s historical ties to extremism and ongoing suspicions of its association with groups such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) serve as enduring obstacles to diplomatic legitimacy.   The article also examines the geopolitical dimensions of recognition, noting that while most states remain cautious, some — including China, Russia, and Uzbekistan—have taken steps toward pragmatic engagement. Dr. Gafarov states that China’s acceptance of Taliban envoys and Uzbekistan’s growing economic ties with Kabul indicate a potential shift in regional diplomacy, yet formal recognition remains elusive. Meanwhile, the author underscores the role of global media in shaping Afghanistan’s diplomatic standing, pointing out that shifting international attention toward conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East has further sidelined discussions on Afghanistan’s status.   In conclusion, the expert asserts that the Taliban’s long-term survival on the global stage hinges on internal political reform, economic stability, and a more flexible approach to human rights issues, particularly concerning women’s education. He argues that while Afghanistan’s leadership has demonstrated interest in regional infrastructure projects and economic initiatives, these efforts remain overshadowed by governance deficiencies and global distrust. The author suggests that unless the Taliban addresses these core challenges, its quest for international legitimacy will remain an uphill battle.   Read the article on The Diplomat’s website   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The policy brief by Professor Ibragim Mavlanov is devoted to the assessment of Uzbekistan’s export potential in the context of its aspiration to join the ranks of developed countries. The author emphasises that the country’s share in world exports is an important macroeconomic indicator reflecting its place in the global economy. The paper examines the dynamics of Uzbek exports since 1992, including periods of growth, stagnation and subsequent recovery. It analyses the government’s strategic goals, including the New Uzbekistan-2026 and Uzbekistan-2030 programmes aimed at increasing exports to $45 billion, as well as the impact of international economic factors on the development of foreign trade.   Based on a comparative analysis with developed and developing countries, the author concludes that to meet the economic standards of developed countries, Uzbekistan needs to multiply its exports – up to $125-500 billion per year. To achieve this goal, it is proposed to pay special attention not only to increasing exports of traditional goods, but also to the development of the services sector and intellectual property. The document underlines the key role of economic diplomacy in creating favourable conditions for export growth and strengthening the country’s international trade relations.   Read the policy brief   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The authors, Azizjon Ziyodullaev, Sajina Rai, Ogabek Norkulov, and Islomkhon Gafarov, in their policy brief published by the Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs (AIDIA, Nepal), argue that Nepal and Uzbekistan, despite their shared status as landlocked nations, have yet to fully capitalize on the opportunities for economic and diplomatic collaboration. They state that while historical and cultural ties between the two countries trace back to the Silk Road era, modern bilateral engagement remains minimal due to logistical constraints, lack of direct transit routes, and the absence of institutional frameworks for sustained cooperation. The brief highlights the strategic importance of both nations in the evolving connectivity landscape of Central and South Asia, underlining the potential benefits of enhanced trade, investment, and multilateral engagement.   Authors state that both countries face common economic and infrastructural challenges, such as high transportation costs and dependency on neighboring countries for market access. They highlight that Uzbekistan’s integration into large-scale connectivity projects, including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, could offer Nepal alternative trade routes beyond its traditional reliance on India. Conversely, Nepal’s expertise in hydropower development and eco-tourism is identified as a sector where Uzbekistan could benefit through knowledge exchange and joint ventures. Furthermore, the brief underscores the importance of multilateral cooperation, particularly through platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the United Nations, to advocate for the interests of landlocked developing countries.   Moreover, the policy brief asserts that despite existing diplomatic ties since 2018, Nepal and Uzbekistan lack direct diplomatic missions, a crucial hindrance to fostering sustained political and economic engagement. The authors argue that formalizing institutional mechanisms, such as regular high-level dialogues, Track II diplomacy, and trade facilitation agreements, could pave the way for enhanced bilateral relations. Additionally, the brief recommends easing visa restrictions, strengthening educational and cultural exchanges, and establishing sectoral working groups to address shared concerns, particularly in trade, climate change adaptation, and labor migration. The authors conclude that a structured partnership between Nepal and Uzbekistan could significantly contribute to regional stability and economic integration, provided that both nations take proactive steps to overcome current limitations.   Read and download the policy brief   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

The article by Nargiza Umarova, published by the CACI Analyst, examines the growing competition over trans-Afghan transport corridors, with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran advancing rival railway projects to connect Central Asia with Pakistan and China. The Taliban government has actively supported these initiatives, recognizing Afghanistan’s strategic position as a transit hub. While Uzbekistan promotes the Kabul Corridor (Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar), Turkmenistan backs an alternative Torghundi-Herat-Kandahar-Spin Boldak route. Meanwhile, Iran is expanding its Chabahar-Zahedan railway toward Afghanistan, aiming to establish direct links with China via Herat through the China-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Iran railway corridor (the “Five Nation Road”).   As the author states, Iran’s growing influence in Afghan transport infrastructure poses a challenge to Uzbekistan’s dominance in regional transit. While Tashkent initially planned to integrate with the Iran-backed Khaf-Herat railway, it shifted focus to the Kabul Corridor to protect its own transit interests. Tajikistan, historically skeptical of the Taliban, has become more engaged in trans-Afghan projects, collaborating with China and Korea to develop a railway link through Sherkhan Bandar. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan’s TAT corridor and the Lapis Lazuli trade route offer alternative links to Turkey and Europe, increasing regional competition for control over Afghan trade routes.   The intensifying rivalry between Iran-backed and Central Asia-backed transport corridors has significant geopolitical and economic implications. Uzbekistan faces growing competition from Iran and China, while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan could gain strategic leverage by securing direct access to China and Afghanistan. To balance regional interests and avoid external dependence, Central Asian states must coordinate their transport strategies, ensuring Afghanistan’s emergence as a transit hub benefits all stakeholders equitably.   Read the article on CACI Analyst   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

This policy brief, supported by the PeaceNexus Foundation and co-authored by Hamza Boltaev, Head of the Centre for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies, offers an in-depth analysis of regional non-governmental initiatives in Central Asia. The study brings together perspectives from researchers across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan to examine the evolution, challenges, and success factors of civil society efforts in the region.   Focusing on thematic clusters such as climate change, gender issues, religion, migration, and socio-economic development, the research evaluates strategies employed by NGOs to foster collaboration, address shared vulnerabilities, and strengthen social cohesion. Particular attention is given to initiatives that align with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and promote regional identity through cultural, environmental, and economic cooperation.   The PeaceNexus Foundation’s role in supporting this research underscores its commitment to enhancing the capacity of non-governmental actors to address conflict-sensitive issues and contribute to sustainable peace. Hamza Boltaev’s contributions specifically highlight advancements in religious dialogue and the role of sports in fostering inclusivity and unity.   This publication concludes with actionable recommendations for policymakers, civil society, and development partners to enhance regional networks, strengthen NGO-government collaboration, and implement sustainable strategies for regional cooperation. It serves as a vital resource for fostering resilience, cohesion, and peacebuilding across Central Asia.   Read the policy brief   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

Nargiza Umarova, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Advanced International Studies, in her new article, published by The Jamestown Foundation, a examines Moscow’s expanding efforts to establish additional transportation links to Afghanistan and explains how these initiatives reflect Russia’s broader geopolitical and economic aims. According to the author, the Kremlin is eager to secure alternative trade routes at a time when Western sanctions have curtailed Russia’s access to many global markets. In seeking to work with Afghanistan, Russian authorities not only hope to lessen the impact of sanctions but also strive to assert influence over key transit corridors in Central Asia.   By extending rail and road infrastructure toward Afghanistan, Moscow can position itself as a key player in the region, exert leverage over the Taliban government, and potentially regulate—or at least monitor—the flow of goods, people, and security threats along its southern periphery. Overall, Nargiza Umarova argues that these transport and trade expansions serve both Russia’s near-term economic interests and its long-standing ambition to remain the primary power broker in Central Asia.   Read the paper on The Jamestown Foundation’s website   * The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.