On 14 October this year, information circulated that Taliban representatives asked Uzbekistan to cancel concerts and music programmes at the common market in Termez, otherwise Afghan citizens would not be allowed access to this market. However, the Uzbek Foreign Ministry soon denied these reports. According to the ministry, no appeals of this nature from Afghanistan have been received by the Uzbek side.

Like other ambiguities in relations between Uzbekistan and the Taliban government, such as the successive changes of their ambassadors in Tashkent for unknown reasons, this topic also remained uncertain.

In an interview with QALAMPIR.UZ, Hamza Boltaev, Head of the Centre for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies, tried to express a concrete opinion on these uncertainties. The expert highlighted Uzbekistan’s pragmatic approach towards the Taliban government, misunderstandings and challenges between the two countries, as well as prospects for the development of bilateral relations.

* The Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS) does not take institutional positions on any issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IAIS.

Islomkhon Gafarov expressed his views on Uzbekistan’s active foreign policy and regional cooperation on a recent edition of Mahalla TV’s MINBAR programme. Noting that Central Asian countries have significantly strengthened their co-operation in recent years, which has allowed resolving many long-standing sensitive issues, including delimitation and demarcation of state borders, as well as effective management of transboundary water resources, the expert stressed that these achievements have become possible due to joint efforts and political will of the region’s countries aimed at ensuring stability and sustainable development. In turn, the resolution of border issues has contributed to reducing potential conflicts and building trust between states, which has a positive impact on regional security.

However, according to Islomkhon Gafarov, despite the successes achieved, the region still faces several economic challenges. The lack of direct access to the world’s oceans forces Central Asian countries to seek alternative transport corridors for exporting and importing goods. The most promising direction in this context is South Asia, through which the nearest access to the ocean lies. Establishing close economic and infrastructural ties with the states of this region could significantly increase the trade and economic potential of Central Asia.

The expert added that the issue of stability and security in Afghanistan, through which the key routes linking Central Asia to southern markets pass, is of particular importance in this regard. Afghanistan’s sustainable development and security on its territory are prerequisites for the realisation of long-term transport and economic projects, which makes strengthening cooperation with the Afghan authorities an important aspect of regional policy.

On 10 September this year, the first televised debate between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump took place in the United States of America. In this regard, IAIS researcher Islomkhon Gafarov took part in the programme “Geopolitics” of the information and analytical agency Kun.uz and gave an expert assessment of the results of these debates.

In the opinion of most editions, the Democrat candidate K. Harris won the debate, but, according to the expert, the political equality between the candidates has been preserved. Islomkhon Gafarov added that Harris focused on the middle class and small business, while Trump expressed his opinion on migration in his speech. In addition, the candidates highlighted geopolitical processes in Europe, the Middle East, East Asia and Afghanistan, as well as the role of the US in overcoming these challenges. The expert regarded this debate not just as a struggle between the two candidates, but as a struggle between the ideas of internationalism of the Democrats and isolationism of the Republicans.

Tashkent, Uzbekistan – 13 September 2024. On 4-5 September 2024, Tashkent became the focal point for two critical regional security dialogues: the 10th International Conference of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (RATS SCO) and the 2nd Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Conference on Combating Terrorism and Extremism. These high-level gatherings brought together leading experts, security officials, and policymakers from member states to address escalating security challenges in the region, with a particular focus on Afghanistan.

During the conferences, Chairman of the State Security Service of Uzbekistan, Abdusalom Azizov, underscored the urgent need for collaboration with Afghanistan in its ongoing struggle against the Khorasan Province, an affiliate of the Islamic State in Afghanistan notorious for its transnational extremist operations. This statement implicitly conveyed a recognition that the Taliban has yet to establish comprehensive control over the country’s security apparatus, signalling an enduring vulnerability within Afghan borders.

Reflecting on this during an interview broadcast by Kun.uz, Hamza Boltaev, Head of the Centre for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies at IAIS, highlighted the complexities surrounding security cooperation with Afghanistan under the current Taliban leadership. According to him, formal recognition of the Taliban’s authority remains a prerequisite for any substantial collaboration on counterterrorism measures. In the absence of official diplomatic ties, interactions between Afghanistan and its regional neighbours have been confined to dialogue, with no tangible outcomes or concerted follow-up actions. The expert further elaborated, noting that discussions on security are no longer optional but a pressing necessity driven by the evolving geopolitical landscape. In his words, “talking about security is a requirement of the time”, reinforcing the need for immediate and coordinated responses to the threats posed by extremist factions like the Khorasan Province.

Islomkhon Gafarov, an expert at the Institute for Advanced International Studies, recently participated in the “International View” (“Xalqaro nigoh”) programme on the Uzbekistan 24 TV channel, where he provided insightful commentary on the forthcoming debates between U.S. presidential candidates. During the discussion, he highlighted the significance of these debates, which are not only a platform for candidates to present their policy proposals but also offer an opportunity to scrutinize their stance on key international issues. With the U.S. playing a pivotal role in global geopolitics, the candidates’ positions on foreign policy will be closely examined.

Mr. Gafarov emphasized that U.S. policy towards Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan, is undergoing a period of transformation. Historically, the region was viewed primarily through the lenses of security, counterterrorism, and energy interests. However, recent global geopolitical shifts have prompted a recalibration of these priorities. The evolving multipolar world order, the strategic significance of China's Belt and Road Initiative, and Russia's continued presence in the region have all contributed to reshaping U.S. engagement in Central Asia.

In this changing landscape, U.S. policy has become more nuanced, with an increasing focus on economic development, digital infrastructure, and regional connectivity. Gafarov noted that Uzbekistan, as a key player in Central Asia, has benefitted from this shift, with U.S. diplomacy placing greater emphasis on supporting the country’s modernization efforts, fostering economic cooperation, and promoting regional stability. As the U.S. presidential candidates outline their foreign policy agendas, their approach to Central Asia will likely reflect this broader shift, moving beyond traditional concerns to embrace new forms of partnership that align with Uzbekistan’s own evolving role on the global stage.

Expert of the Institute for Advanced International Studies Islomkhon Gafarov took part in the “International View” programme of the Uzbekistan 24 TV channel and shared his opinion on the election process in the United States of America.

The researcher noted that at the National Convention of the US Democratic Party, held on August 19-22, issues of economics, internal security and foreign policy of the state were discussed, as well as events dedicated to the place and role of the United States in the world were held.

On July 28, 2024, IAIS leading research fellow Islomkhon Gafarov and doctoral student Sherzod Ziyoyev made reports on international political processes in the “International View” (“Xalqaro nigoh”) programme of the Uzbekistan-24 TV channel. 

In particular, they shared an analysis of the current state of relations between Uzbekistan and the EU, the main directions and prospects for their mutual cooperation, as well as processes in the Middle East and elections in the United States.

Research fellow at the Institute of Advanced International Studies Islomkhon Gafarov took part in the “International View” programme of the Uzbekistan 24 TV channel and shared his opinion on the election process in the United States of America.

The researcher noted that at the National Convention of the US Republican Party, held on July 15-18, issues of economics, internal security and foreign policy of the state were discussed, as well as events dedicated to the place and role of the United States in the world were held.

Islomkhon Gafarov, a Senior Research Fellow at the IAIS Centre for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies, took part in the "Geopolitics" programme of the Kun.uz news agency, where he shared his expert opinion on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Moscow.

It was Modi's first foreign trip after his re-election as India's Prime Minister.

Is the rapprochement between Russia and China a new challenge for India? What is the outcome of the visit and its role for Indo-Russian relations?

The UN and other international organisations find themselves in a difficult situation where the need for dialogue with the authorities of Afghanistan conflicts with the rejection of their policies regarding human rights. Despite this, since May of last year, we have witnessed a series of attempts to establish a dialogue with the government of Afghanistan.

On May 1-2, 2023, a meeting on Afghanistan was convened in Qatar by Antonio Guterres. Special envoys for Afghanistan from various countries, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, participated. Although the agenda was dedicated to Afghan issues, the invitation did not extend to the representatives of the Taliban due to the international community's non-recognition of the Taliban government as legitimate and the clear requirements they must meet.

However, in February 2024, the Second Doha Meeting on Afghanistan took place, where representatives of both the Taliban and the official opposition to their government were invited. Despite the Taliban government's refusal to participate in the meeting, this dynamic clearly shows changes in the approaches of the international community, particularly the UN, towards the Taliban and a readiness to bring them to the negotiating table. This is also confirmed by the UN's DiCarlo, who stated that the main goal of the third Doha meeting on Afghanistan is the "normalization" of relations between the Taliban and the international community.

This position was confirmed in the latest meeting on Afghanistan in Doha, which started on June 30^th this year. This time, we not only observed the invitation and participation of the Taliban in the negotiations but also the fulfillment of their conditions to exclude Afghan women and activists from participating in the meetings. This appears paradoxical since the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, who oversees this event, stated the goal is to create an Afghanistan that "is at peace with itself and its neighbors, fully integrated into the international community, and fulfilling its obligations, including in the area of human rights, especially those of women and girls."

The events around organising “Doha meeting” this particular time possibly indicate that the international community’s approach towards Taliban seems to be undergoing shifts as official interaction with the Taliban has reached to a new legitimate level. Moreover, meetings of the Taliban with countries discussing issues of cooperation and strengthening interaction indicate that countries have already established strong ties in areas such as trade relations, infrastructure projects, and plans to expand the mining sector.

This also applies to the countries of Central Asia. Perhaps, these countries have to develop a common legal framework for cooperation with Taliban government. As practice shows, the Taliban's integration into the region is growing, and there might soon be a need for legal regulation of certain issues. Today, we see the Taliban actively engaging in regional processes, driven by the need to improve and stabilize Afghanistan's internal situation. As a result, it is safe to assume that this process could necessitate a revision of Central Asian countries’ policies regarding Afghanistan.

In an insightful interview, Andrea Minervini engages with Akram Umarov, a distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy, to discuss the growing importance of Central Asia in the international arena. Professor Umarov sheds light on the region's strategic significance, the geopolitical dynamics at play, and the economic and political developments shaping Central Asia's future. As the region garners increased attention from global powers, this interview provides a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for Central Asian countries. Explore this in-depth conversation with one of the leading experts on Central Asian geopolitics in Italian on our website.

Read the interview

Until 2016, the factor of Afghanistan in the framework of the foreign policy of Uzbekistan was considered mainly through the prism of ensuring national and regional security. However, after the launch of reforms by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in the second half of 2016, the southern neighbor began to be increasingly perceived not as a source of challenges and threats, but as a sum of opportunities within the framework of the general trend towards economization of the country's foreign policy.

This, of course, did not mean that security issues faded into the background. They were simply called upon to create favorable conditions for the development of trade, economic and investment relations. It is noteworthy that the withdrawal of American and NATO contingents, which caused a wide resonance in the world and the region, accompanied by the rapid advance of the Taliban (the Taliban movement, an organization banned in Russia) and the collapse of the government of Ashraf Ghani in August 2021, did not, on the whole, introduce fundamental changes in the new approach. Uzbekistan.

The election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as President of Uzbekistan symbolized a change in the basic paradigm in the development of the country. There has been a rethinking of its basic constants in foreign policy – ​​the focus has shifted from the priority on maximizing security, which prevailed in the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s, towards ensuring socio-economic reforms in accordance with modern realities and the backbone trends of the global economy. The new foreign policy course was called "economization" in the expert community.

As part of the new policy, key attention has been paid to using the potential of cooperation with regional countries, which are considered as natural markets for Uzbek products. It should be noted that until 2016 this potential was not used to its full potential due to disagreements with a number of Central Asian countries on water and border issues.

The new course of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev showed that often the sharpness and depth of the previously existing contradictions were seriously exaggerated. Evidence of this was the rapid normalization of relations with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, accompanied by the explosive growth of bilateral trade and the expansion of humanitarian contacts. Trade with Kazakhstan also began to develop rapidly. Despite the decline in trade with some Central Asian countries during the coronavirus pandemic, after it ended, it quickly recovered and returned to a growth trajectory.

In the new “economized” foreign policy course, much attention was also paid to Afghanistan, which, during the presence of the United States in this country and large-scale injections of donor funds into the Afghan economy, has become a significant export destination for Uzbek producers. At the same time, Uzbekistan traditionally had a steady surplus in trade with Kabul. If in 2019 it amounted to 431.2 million dollars (exports 433.3 million, imports - almost 2.1), then in the record-breaking coronavirus 2020 for bilateral trade. - 774.4 million dollars (export - 776.7 million, import - 2.3 million).

The Afghan market, which accounts for 5% of all Uzbek exports, has become the engine of economic activity in a number of sectors of the Uzbek economy, as evidenced by the commodity nomenclature. In 2020, 662 trade items were exported to Afghanistan. Of these, the lion's share of exports fell on the supply of wheat flour (28.1%), electricity (17.2%), freight rail services (25.3%). Exports of cement grew rapidly (by 21% compared to 2019) and ferrous metallurgy products (26.6%).

As of 2021, Afghanistan was Uzbekistan's largest trade and economic partner of all South Asian countries. It accounted for 48.9% of the total trade turnover, India - 35.6%, Pakistan - 13.2% and Bangladesh - 2.1%.

Meanwhile, the potential of economic relations with Afghanistan at that time was considered as far from its full implementation, which set the task for the government and the Foreign Ministry of Uzbekistan to bring bilateral cooperation to a qualitatively and quantitatively new level. As an analysis of Tashkent's foreign policy activity in relation to Afghanistan in the period 2016-2021 shows, its steps in the Afghan direction have become proactive and focused on three areas.

The first direction is to stimulate the efforts of the international community to find a model for a peaceful settlement of the Afghan conflict. It must be said that the period 2016-2021. characterized by growing military and political instability in Afghanistan. Thus, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and the UN Human Rights Office, in 2018, 3,804 civilians were killed and 7,189 injured, including 927 children. The cause of 63% of the victims was the actions of anti-government forces (AGF) - the Taliban * (37%), ISIS-Khorasan ** (20%) and 6% - unidentified ATF. Pro-government forces were responsible for 24% of the casualties.

Obviously, this trend inspired growing fears for the future development of the situation in the Afghan domestic political field. In this regard, Uzbekistan came up with the initiative to hold an international conference on Afghanistan "Peace process, security cooperation and regional interaction." The event was held in Tashkent in March 2018 and during it, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev voiced the Uzbek vision for the settlement of the Afghan conflict, which consisted in advancing a comprehensive peace process at the following three interrelated and interdependent levels:

- at the intra-Afghan level, where it was necessary to ensure the launch of a direct dialogue without preconditions between the central government and the main forces of the armed opposition, primarily the Taliban *;

- at the regional level, in order to ensure the achievement of a strong consensus with the support of Pakistan, India, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and the countries of Central Asia;

- at the global level, at which it was necessary to provide fundamental political support for the peace process and financial assistance to the socio-economic reconstruction of Afghanistan from the leading world powers and donor organizations.

Later, already in 2020, Uzbekistan positively perceived the transformation of the capital of Qatar, Doha, into a negotiating platform for the Afghan settlement. As President Shavkat Mirziyoyev stated in his speech at the 75th session of the UN General Assembly, “We fully support the peace talks between the political forces of Afghanistan that began in September this year in the city of Doha. We express the hope that these negotiations will contribute to the establishment of peace and stability in the long-suffering Afghan land.”

Second directionwhere the proactive nature of Uzbek policy was manifested was the promotion of an initiative to create a solid foundation for cooperation between Central and South Asia with the participation of Afghanistan. The impetus for this strategic line was given by the international conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity” held on July 15-16, 2021 in Tashkent. The expansion of cooperation between the two regions was supposed to have a positive impact on the overall security system in Eurasia, contribute to the expansion of trade, economic and investment relations, and the development of cultural and humanitarian ties. Afghanistan in this regard was considered as one of the key beneficiaries, since the lion's share of cargo transportation would have to be carried out directly through its territory.

As the third direction of the Afghan vector of Uzbekistan's policy in the period 2016-2021. one can note the search for and creation of additional incentives and platforms for building up economic cooperation with Afghanistan. In 2017, a roadmap was signed to increase bilateral trade turnover to $1.5 billion, including more than 40 contracts worth more than $500 million to supply Uzbek products to the Afghan market.

An agreement was also signed on the construction of a power line at Surkhan - Puli Khumri for a stable energy supply to Kabul. The contract for the design, construction and operation of power lines in Afghanistan was signed between the National Electric Grids of Uzbekistan and Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat in December 2020, after which its implementation began, which was suspended in July 2021 amid a sharp increase in hostilities in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan managed at that time to complete the construction of a part of the power line on its territory.

Among the significant steps to increase trade and economic cooperation, one can single out the agreement reached by the parties in May 2021 in Termez to accelerate the approval of a draft agreement on preferential trade to bring trade to the level of $2 billion per year. In order to stimulate transit cargo transportation to / from Afghanistan, in 2016, the Termez Cargo Center was opened in the Surkhandarya region in close proximity to the Afghan border.

Meanwhile, the policy of Uzbekistan during the period of President Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani was not limited to economic interests. Tashkent, considering this country as "an integral part of Central Asia" and has repeatedly provided humanitarian assistance to it.

The unexpected for many analysts, the rapid fall of Kabul on August 15, 2021 and the establishment by the Taliban * of control over the entire territory of Afghanistan, including the seemingly impregnable Panjshir Gorge immediately after the withdrawal of American troops, put all the countries of Central Asia in front of the need to adjust their foreign policy based on new realities. According to a statement by Uzbek officials, the return of the Taliban * to power was not a surprise for them, since two years earlier such a development of events was predicted and clear security guarantees were received from the head of the political office of the Taliban in Doha (Qatar), Mullah Abdul Ghani Barodar.

Understanding that the emerging new reality in Afghanistan provides an opportunity to end the forty-year conflict, it was important for Uzbekistan to prevent the degradation of the humanitarian situation in this country, especially since against the backdrop of the cessation of international funding and the freezing of the country's funds in Western banks, the Afghan economy and the banking system were immediately on the brink of collapse. To prevent this, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, at the SCO summit in Dushanbe on September 17, 2021, called for the unfreezing of $9.5 billion of Afghan funds and assistance to Afghanistan in solving social problems.

A few days later, at the 76th session of the UN General Assembly, the President of Uzbekistan also called for the creation of a permanent committee on Afghanistan under the UN. His goal was to prevent the isolation of this state, in which it would be alone with its problems.

Based on the logic of preventing a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan constructively and pragmatically accepted the formation of the Transitional Administration of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" (interim government) immediately after the capture of Kabul by the Taliban. Already on October 7, 2021, the head of the Uzbek Foreign Ministry Abdulaziz Kamilov visited Kabul. During the visit, he met with Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Amir Khan Muttaki, with whom issues of bilateral economic cooperation in the field of cargo transit, energy, trade and reconstruction of the airport in Mazar-i-Sharif were discussed.

In general, the position of Uzbekistan at the end of 2021 regarding Afghanistan and the political changes that have taken place in it can be reduced to several points voiced by A. Kamilov at the second ministerial meeting in the Italy-Central Asia format on December 8, 2021. Among them:

- the need for a constructive dialogue with the new authorities of Afghanistan in order to avoid the re-turning of this country into a so-called. “a rogue state;

- providing a humanitarian corridor to Afghanistan in order to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe;

- taking measures to lift sanctions, unfreeze Afghanistan's international assets and assist it in restoring the banking system;

- the importance of launching the development of a post-conflict strategy with regard to Afghanistan and highlighting as a priority its more active involvement in regional economic integration processes and the implementation of socio-economic projects in this country;

- the fulfillment by the new Afghan authorities of the international obligations assumed: the creation of an inclusive government, the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking, the prevention of the deployment of terrorist groups in the country, the termination of contacts with them, the support of good neighborly relations with the countries of the region, the observance of fundamental human rights and freedoms, including number of women and national minorities.

Additional aspects to the designated political line of Uzbekistan towards Afghanistan were introduced in Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s address to the participants of the international conference “Afghanistan: security and economic development” held on July 26, 2022 in Tashkent. He, in particular, stressed that the Uzbek and Afghan peoples are united by common cultural, spiritual and historical values, as well as a single religion and heritage of their ancestors. In addition, the indivisibility of the security of Central Asia and Afghanistan was noted, since without stability south of the Amu Darya it would be impossible to achieve the security and sustainable development of Uzbekistan and all of Central Asia.

As the positions of the new Afghan authorities strengthened, showing their ability to keep the situation under control and revive certain economic activity in the country, despite limited financial opportunities, the policy of Uzbekistan again returned to giving priority to economic cooperation, promotion of mutually beneficial infrastructure and transport projects. Moreover, the Taliban themselves showed a clear interest. This is evidenced by the conference held on December 6-7, 2021. Uzbek-Afghan-Pakistani meeting in Tashkent to discuss the project for the construction of the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway. Also at the end of December 2021, during negotiations in Tashkent, the parties announced their intention to continue the construction of the Surkhan-Puli-Khumri power line.

If we analyze the situation in bilateral relations in 2022, we can note a number of positive events and trends for Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Among them is the growth of bilateral trade to $759.9 million, which was only slightly lower than in 2020, when President Ashraf Ghani was in power ($779.1 million). Uzbek exports in 2022 accounted for $750.6 million ($776.7 million in 2020). At the same time, imports of Afghan goods and services increased - from $2.3 million in 2020. and $6.2 million in 2021 to 9.3 million in 2022.

Significant events include the completion by Tashkent of a technical assistance project for the restoration of the Mazar-i-Sharif airport, which included the repair of aeronautical and meteorological equipment, the reconstruction of the runway and the restoration of power supply.

During the first half of 2022 there was a rapid increase in transit traffic through Uzbekistan and Afghanistan in a southerly direction, which can serve as an indicator of the ability of the Taliban * to ensure the security of transport communications. The volume of cargo transportation increased by 2.6 times compared to the same period in 2021. up to 330 thousand tons.

Thanks to a certain stabilization of Afghanistan, an opportunity has opened up for Tashkent to establish direct cargo transportation with Islamabad. Already in November 2021, the first transit cargo from Uzbekistan was delivered to Pakistan, and in March 2022, the first batch of Pakistani meat was delivered to the Uzbek market through Afghan territory. India also tested this route by sending a transit cargo through Pakistan and Afghanistan to Uzbekistan.

The development of joint plans to increase the volume of bilateral trade and investment can be considered an indicator of the positive mood that has appeared in this regard in Uzbek-Pakistani relations. The parties reached an agreement on preferential trade, according to which duties on several dozen goods will be reduced from 20 to 100% [24]. Thanks to this, the volume of bilateral trade is expected to increase from $181 million in 2021 to $1 billion in the coming years.

Meanwhile, speaking about the future contours of Uzbekistan's policy towards Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban*, one cannot ignore the potential risks that may affect its progressive nature. Although the Taliban * controls the situation in the country as a whole, however, this control still remains insufficiently strong in its basic basis. First of all, we are talking about the economy and the humanitarian situation. Currently, 6 million Afghans are on the verge of starvation, which is an extremely dangerous challenge for the Taliban authorities. The further aggravation of the situation with hunger still allows to deter foreign aid. More than a quarter of the population of 40 million receive food packages from the World Food Program.

The only way to mitigate the acuteness of the humanitarian situation is through the accelerated development of the national economy through the attraction of large-scale foreign investments, technologies and competencies, but for this the new authorities will need to receive international recognition, which will not be available in the foreseeable future until an inclusive political system is created and protected. the rights of women and girls to education and work. Whether the Taliban will be ready to change and go for a significant liberalization of their political and value approaches, as well as along the path of assimilation of the cultural foundations of Modern, is still difficult to say.

Nevertheless, time does not endure, just as the Afghan society will not wait for a natural change of generations in the ranks of the Taliban *. As the whole history of this country shows, the discontent of the population is always a time bomb, which sooner or later will make itself felt. In this regard, of interest is the opinion expressed by the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Afghanistan, Director of the Second Department of Asia of the Russian Foreign Ministry Zamir Kabulov in an interview with the Indian magazine The Week in February 2023.

In his opinion, the Taliban have not learned how to govern the state, although they have repeatedly stated that they have learned their lessons and will not repeat past mistakes. “The Taliban* sometimes cannot understand very simple things, especially when there are no challenges to their power. I mean serious contenders who can force him out. This does not mean that there will be no such challenges. It won't be someone from the outside. But this will be a normal reaction of the Afghan people, because in the current circumstances it will be very difficult for them to survive,” the Russian diplomat said. According to Zamir Kabulov, "The Taliban must take institutional steps to improve the situation, or at least open the way for such an improvement, which we do not see at the moment."

***

So, summing up, it can be noted that the policy of Uzbekistan, based on an approach that combines issues of bilateral economic cooperation with Kabul, promoting initiatives at the international level to strengthen peace and provide assistance to Afghanistan in order to prevent its next slide into the abyss of instability and humanitarian crisis, and the implementation of measures to integrate this country into the system of trade, economic and transport relations between Central and South Asia that is being created today, is one of the most conceptually formalized lines among states that have their own interests in the Afghan field. As shown by the results of 2021-2022. this line is already paying dividends for the foreign policy and economy of Uzbekistan, including allowing it to smoothly go through the period of change of power in Afghanistan in August 2021.

At the same time, the further progress of Uzbekistan's policy in the Afghan direction will be largely associated with the steps of the new Afghan authorities themselves in domestic and foreign policy, with their ability not only to control the domestic political situation, but also to implement measures of economic and social modernization, without which it will be virtually impossible launch sustainable economic growth, raise the income level of the population, gain international recognition and improve the country's image on the world stage.